Hammer of God (Kirov Series Book 14) (4 page)

Part II

Uncertainty

“Certainty about
prediction is an illusion. One thing that history keeps teaching us is that the
future is full of surprises and outwits all our certitudes.”
Arthur Schlesinger, Jr.

Chapter 4

The door
opened slowly and
he entered, the dark shiny band of his hat catching the light as he strode
boldly forward. The click of his boots on the hard wood floor echoed a
confidence that also stiffened his posture, and hardened the lines of his
shoulders. At his side he carried a ceremonial baton, with a jeweled handle of
the finest leather and a metal tip. His uniform was immaculate, charcoal grey
trimmed in black, and his breast was gilded with the gold and silver of medals.

He was born in the heart of the
capital, Berlin, Fritz Erich Georg Eduard von Lewinski, the son of a Prussian
general, but raised more by his aunt than his own parents. Unable to have
children, she had all but adopted the young Fritz Erich as her own son, even to
the point of giving him the name she had borrowed from another Prussian general
when she married Georg von Manstein. And so the man who might have grown up to
be General Lewinski, instead was christened General Erich von Manstein, and he
soon distinguished himself as one of the most able and capable generals in the
German Army.

The son of two generals served in
the first war, taking part in the capture of the citadel of Namur, being
wounded at the battle of the Masurian Lakes, and later was at Verdun and the
Somme. He was so talented that he was one of the select group of only 4000
officers the German Army was permitted to retain after the First World War.
When Heintz Guderian proposed dramatic new changes to German war doctrine,
Manstein became a bridge between the old infantry tactics and the new emphasis
on the slashing maneuver of armor. When then Chief of the Army General Staff,
Ludwig Beck, opposed Guderian’s ideas about tanks, Manstein proposed the
creation of the Sturmgeschutz self-propelled assault gun to work in direct
support with the infantry.

Many thought Manstein would soon
take Beck’s place, but the politics of OKW saw another man rise to that post,
Franz Halder, and the incident embittered the relationship between Halder and
Manstein for years to come. Yet as a skilled planner with a sharp strategic
mind, Manstein was at the heart of all the early German successes at war. It
was he who had guided the plan for operations against Poland, and it was his
decisive change to the German
Fall Gelb
plan to attack France that
resulted in the swift defeat of that nation.

Halder was none too happy about
that. He had drafted a plan for a sweeping attack in the north, but Manstein
instead insisted that the armor could emerge from the unexpected axis of the
Ardennes forest in a “sickle cut” behind the enemy that would unhinge the
entire defense. Halder had Manstein transferred to get rid of the man and his
ideas, but they prevailed when Hitler ordered a version of the plan that was
much in accord with Manstein’s thinking. The result was now history.

It was no surprise then, as
Hitler now contemplated an array of many options in the months ahead, that he
summoned Manstein again, much to Halder’s chagrin.

“Greetings, General.” The dark
eyes flashed with energy, but the handshake was cold, as if the man had no
soul. Manstein never forgot that observation he soon made about Hitler, though
he would nonetheless serve his country to the best of his considerable
abilities. Now he wondered what this meeting was all about, and why he would be
privileged to be granted an audience with the Führer himself. Hitler wasted no
time getting to the reason.

“My generals in OKW are still
debating the future course of the war,” he said flatly. “They are full of
numbers and statistics, analyzing all the deployments of the enemy, but never
seem to add those numbers up to the same sum. So I have called you here to
listen to your thoughts on the matter. I was very impressed with the
alterations you proposed for
Fall Gelb
. You have seen the plans for
Barbarossa?”

“I have, my Führer.”

“Your thoughts?”

Manstein wanted to be careful
here, as he knew his arch rival Halder most likely had his hand on the tiller
where Barbarossa was concerned. “It is top heavy again,” he said with
confidence. “The emphasis on taking Leningrad, and then Moscow, commits the
bulk of our forces in Army Group North and the central attack.”

“Yet Leningrad is the seed bed of
Bolshevism,” said Hitler.

“It was, but as we have seen the
seeds have spread considerably. Taking Leningrad is merely theater. The same
can be said for Moscow. We should instead focus on the south, moving north only
after we have effectively joined with the forces of the Orenburg Federation.”

“Interesting,” said Hitler
enthusiastically. “I am surprised to hear you say this, as you are presently
assigned to 56th Panzer Korps in Army Group North. Your forces would be leading
the way there.”

“Correct,” said Manstein,
removing his cap and tucking it under his arm to reveal his closely cropped
white hair. “While taking Leningrad removes a strong economic and production
center from Kirov’s control, it would not be decisive in and of itself, and it
would eventually pull the axis of our attack towards Moscow. Where else? While
a prominent political center and symbol of Soviet power, its capture really
affords us no military strategic value. That fruit is all in the south, in the
Crimea and the Caucasus.”

“Precisely,” said Hitler with a
smile. “Finally I hear a general I can agree with. My thought is to overwhelm
the Soviets west of Moscow, and not commit the same mistake Napoleon made by
trying to drive on the city itself.”

“Yet the Soviet Army may be more
resilient than you believe, my Führer. It is my understanding that they have
lately concluded an accord with the Free Siberian State. In this event, they
now have all of Siberia in their back yard, a place to retreat if we press them
hard.”

“Siberia? There is nothing there
but endless forest and the backward Tartar cavalry the this Karpov has been
mustering. They flit about in those obsolete Zeppelins, with no air force of
any consequence. They are no threat.”

“Yet one of those obsolete Zeppelins
bombed Berlin the other day, if the reports I received are true.”

Hitler gave him a dark look.
“That was a fluke,” he said. “It will not be repeated. Yes, I have been told it
was the Siberians—the same man who recently met with Sergei Kirov to seek his
friendship. Rest assured, he will be held to account for that little stunt.”
Hitler folded his arms, looking at the map table now as he often poured over it
alone, his mind quietly moving his armies and ships about in the long hours of
the night.

“And what of the British?” he
suddenly changed his tack. “They are clearly beaten but remain as stubborn as
that old Bulldog Churchill.”

“It was always my thinking that
we should have proceeded with Operation Seelöwe,” said Manstein. “If we had
done so, we would not be discussing the British any longer. They would already
be under our heel.”

“That was Goering’s fault,”
Hitler said with an obvious edge of bitterness. “He promised me he would crush
the RAF to allow for our invasion, and then never delivered.”

“That plan was flawed from the
outset,” said Manstein.

“Oh? Then why did you not say so?
Explain.”

“Our fighters could not range far
enough over England to protect the bombers. This is why I believed the issue of
air superiority should have been decided over the English Channel, during the
actual invasion operation, and not over London, or god forbid, Birmingham.”

“They bombed Berlin,” said Hitler
hotly. “I had to return the favor over London.”

“And we have seen the results. By
that same logic we should be trying to bomb Novosibirsk to punish the
Siberians, but we can both see how impractical that would be.” Manstein knew he
was skirting a sore spot with the Führer now, but he was determined to speak
his mind.

“All that said, the issue is
moot. We lost our chance to eliminate Britain in 1940, and now the possibility
of another front opening against us in the West remains a real possibility.”

“From the British? They have done
nothing more than seize a few useless islands in the Atlantic. They have not
even moved to try and put troops into Portugal, because they know I would crush
them in a heartbeat if they tried.”

“Oh? With what, my Führer? It is
my understanding that you have moved the heart of the Gibraltar garrison to North
Africa, or that you are planning to do so.”

“16th Motorized Division remains
there, along with the 76th Infantry division.”

“And if the British do land
troops in Portugal? Would they be enough to stop them before they got established
there? I think not. Why have you sent all these forces to North Africa?”

“Ask Raeder, and when you are done
with him, you can then hear the same story from Paulus, Keitel, Jodl and even
Halder. Raeder’s Mediterranean strategy has infected the thinking of everyone
at OKW, even Halder. They insist I must deal with the British before I open a
new front against Soviet Russia. Do you agree?”

“You will not knock Great Britain
out of the war in North Africa. Look what happened to Rommel! The British were
much stronger there than he thought, and now he is right back where he started
from, at Agheila and Mersa Brega. The man is a good officer, bold, aggressive,
but he is often rash. He did not have the strength to move east with the forces
he had. He should have waited.”

“He was ordered to do exactly
that,” said Hitler with a wag of his finger, “but ran off half-cocked on his
own. Paulus reports he has finally talked some sense into Rommel. Yes, he was
inadequately supplied, so I have sent him more troops.”

“A waste of time and resources,”
said Manstein. “Yes, they will present a growing threat in the Western Desert
of Libya, but a threat that is still a thousand kilometers from the Suez
Canal.”

“I have considered this,” said
Hitler, “But it was not mere a supply problem that led to this recent setback. Have
you heard the reports about these new British tanks?”

“I cannot say that I have, my
Führer.”

“That was the shock Rommel got
when he moved east. I am told the British have new heavy armor, better than
anything we have—a tank twice the size of their old Matildas, and my panzer
commanders tell me even that old tank was difficult to kill. Very well, we will
get new tanks soon enough, but in the meantime Rommel will be doing little more
than trucking in fuel and supplies for the next two months. In the meantime,
OKW is urging me to eliminate the British outpost on Crete.” Hitler pointed at
the map. “Do you agree?”

Manstein considered this for a
time, then began pointing with his baton. “You could take Crete easily enough.
Student’s troops showed what they could do at Malta. But it would be weeks
mopping up there before the Fliegerkorps was ready to operate again. In the
meantime, what will the British do? They are watching Rommel in Libya, but must
also look over their shoulder at the trouble stirring in Iraq. Frankly, I am
amazed that they have not moved against the French in Syria yet, but this is
most likely because they do not have the troops in hand to do so.”

“This is what Ivan Volkov tells
me,” said Hitler.

“Volkov? I was not aware that you
have met with the man.”

“He communicates with me
regularly, as he is very fond of making predictions about this war—a self
styled prophet, or so I am told. OKW is set to attack Crete, but Volkov tells
me this is useless. In fact, he has gone so far as to warn me it will likely
result in very heavy casualties. Do you believe this?”

“I have not seen the intelligence
on the British defenses on Crete, but every airborne operation is inherently
risky.”

“Then what to do, Manstein?”

Manstein had a quick answer. “Why
does the southern axis for Barbarossa offer us the real prize? The answer to
that is simple—oil. Once we push through to join with Orenburg, then we have
everything we need to end this war favorably. Yet how do we get those resources
home to Germany? We cannot ship anything across the Black Sea until we control
it, and it seems Raeder’s little plan for
Hindenburg
and
Bismarck
has met a recent setback.”

The look on Hitler’s face told
Manstein that he had hit a nerve with that. “He tried to cover up the damage to
Hindenburg
and explain it all away,” Hitler said hotly. “It seems the
British have more than new tanks! They also deployed some kind of new naval
rocket bomb that was able to strike our ships from well over the horizon.”

“Oh? I have heard nothing of
this.”

“You have been up north with your
Panzer Korps.”

“It hardly matters,” said
Manstein. “Raeder will not be able to move ships into the Black Sea. The Turks
will not permit it, yet that is of no concern. If Barbarossa does take the
southern axis, we can eliminate all the bases the Soviet Fleet must use to
contest the Black Sea. Orenburg already controls everything from Novorossiysk
to Batumi on the eastern shore, and with Barbarossa we will take Odessa,
Nikolayev, and Sevastopol in the Crimea. After that, the only place the Black
Sea Fleet can go is Istanbul.

“That is a neutral state,” Hitler
cautioned.

“Well enough, but do not worry
about the Black Sea Fleet. Frankly, I believe we can neutralize it with our air
power, even if the Turks open their arms and invite them to Istanbul. It should
not be a concern. That failing, we can simply take Istanbul, and the Dardanelles
and Bosporus with it. We already have troops on the Turkish frontier. That is a
scant 230 kilometers to Istanbul. Terrain favors the defense there, but an
aggressive an imaginative plan could prevail. The Turkish Army is no match for
us, and once we link up with the Orenburg Federation, Volkov’s forces in the
Caucasus can be moved to the Turkish border. That will give them more than
enough reason to shun Sergei Kirov. They may even be persuaded to join with us,
and no further campaign would be necessary.”