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it. My department has a high record of forecasting accuracy -eighty

percent, as you perfectly well know. You won't find better anywhere."

"But you and your people really screwed up today!"

"For Chrissakes, Ray," Nim Goldman protested. "This isn't getting us

anywhere."

J. Eric Humphrey listened to the argument with apparent indifference. The

chairman never said so specifically, but sometimes left the impression he

had no objection to his senior staff's feuding, providing their work was

not impaired. There were some in businesspresumably Humphrey was one-who

believed an all-harmonious organization was also a complacent one. But when

the chairman needed to, he could cut through disputes with the sharp knife

of authority.

At this moment, strictly speaking, the executives now in the control

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center-Flumphrey, Nim Goldman, Paulsen, several others-had no business

being there. The center was competently staffed. Actions to be taken in

emergency were well known, having been worked out long ago; most were

computer-activated, supplemented by instruction manuals conveniently at

hand. In a crisis, however, such as the one GSP & L was facing now, this

place with its up-to-the-second information became a magnct for those with

authority to get in.

The big question, still unresolved, was: Would demands for electric power

become so great as to exceed the supply available? If the answer proved

to be yes, entire banks of substation switches would necessarily be

opened, leaving segments of California without power, isolating entire

communities, creating chaos.

An emergency "brownout" was already in effect. Since 10 A.M. the voltage

supplied to GSP & L consumers bad been reduced in stages until it was now

eight percent below normal. The reduction allowed some power saving but

meant that small appliances like hair dryers, electric typewriters,

refrigerators were receiving ten volts less than usual while equipment

wired for heavy duty was being deprived of nineteen to twenty volts. The

lower voltages made everything less efficient, and electric motors ran

hotter and more noisily than usual. Some computers were in trouble; those

not equipped with voltage regulators had already switched off

automatically and would stay that way until normal voltage was restored.

One side effect was to shrink television pictures in home receivers, so

that they failed to fill the screen. But over a short period there should

be no lasting damage. Lighting, too-from ordinary incandescent bulbs-was

slightly dimmed.

An eight percent brownout, however, was the limit. Beyond that, electric

motors would overheat, perhaps burn out, creating a fire hazard. Thus,

if a brownout was not sufficient, the last resort was load shedding

-committing large areas to total blackout.

The next two hours would tell. If GSP & L could somehow bold on until

midafternoon, the time of peak demand on hot days, the load would ease

until tomorrow. Then, assuming tomorrow was a cooler day -no problem.

But if the present load, which bad been climbing steadily all day,

continued to increase . . . the worst could happen.

Ray Paulsen did not give up easily. "Well, Milly," be persisted, "today's

weather forecast was ridiculously wrong. True?"

"Yes, it's true. If you want to put it in that unfair, ugly way."

Millicent Knight's dark eyes flashed with anger. "But it's also true

there's an air mass a thousand miles offshore called the Pacific High.

Meteorology doesn't know very much about it, but sometimes it throws all

California forecasts out of whack by a day or so." She added scornfully,

"Or are you so wrapped tip in electrical circuitry you don't know that

elementary fact of nature?"

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Paulsen flushed. "Now wait a minute!"

Milly Knight ignored him. "Another thing. My people and I gave an honest

forecast. But a forecast, in case you've forgotten, is just that-it leaves

some room for doubt. I didn't tell you to shut down Magalia 2 for

maintenance. That's a decision you made-and you're blaming me for it."

The group by the table chuckled. Someone murmured, "Touch6."

As they well knew, part of today's problem was the Magalia plant.

Magalia z, part of a GSP & L facility north of Sacramento, was a big,

steam-driven generator capable of putting out 6oo,ooo kilowatts. But ever

since it was built some ten years earlier, Magalia 2 had been a source of

trouble. Repeated boiler tube ruptures and other, more serious malfunctions

kept it frequently out of service, most recently as long as nine months

while the superheater was retubed. Even after that, problems bad continued.

As one engineer described it, operating Magalia 2 was like keeping a

leaking battleship afloat.

For the past week the plant manager at Magalia had pleaded with Ray Paulsen

to allow him to shut down number 2 to repair boiler tube leaks-as he put

it, "before this jinxed teakettle blows apart." Until yesterday, Paulsen

bad adamantly said no. Even before the present beat wave began, and because

of unscheduled repair shutdowns elsewhere, Magalia 2's power had been

needed for the system. As always, it was a matter of balancing priorities,

sometimes taking a chance. Last night, after reading the forecast of lower

temperatures for today, and weighing everything, Paulsen gave approval and

the unit was shut down immediately, with work beginning several hours later

when the boiler bad cooled. By this morning, Magalia 2 was silent and leaky

pipe sections had been cut from several boiler tubes. Though desperately

needed, Magalia 2 could not be back on line for two more days.

"If the forecast had been accurate," Paulsen growled, "Magalia wouldn't

have been released."

The chairman shook his head. He had heard enough. There would be time for

inquests later. This was not the moment.

Nim Goldman had been conferring at the dispatch console. Now, his forceful

voice cutting clearly across others', he announced, "Load shedding will

have to begin in half an hour. There's no longer any doubt. We'll have to."

He glanced toward the chairman. "I think we should alert the media. TV and

radio can still get warnings out."

"Do it," Humphrey said. "And someone get me the Governor on the phone."

"Yes, sir." An assistant dispatcher began dialing.

Faces in the room were grim. In the utility's century-and-a-quarter history

what was about to happen-intentional disruption of servicehad never

occurred before.

8

Nim Goldman was already telephoning Public Relations, over in another

building. There would be no delay about warnings going out. The utility's

p.r. department was geared to handle them; although, normally, the sequence

of power cuts was known only to a few people within the company, now they

would be made public. As another point of policy, a few months ago it had

been decided that the cuts-if and when they happened-would be known as

"rolling blackouts," a p.r. ploy to emphasize their temporary nature and

the fact tbat all areas would be treated fairly. The phrase "rolling

blackouts" was a young secretary's brainchild, after her older, more highly

paid superiors failed to come up with anything acceptable. One of the

rejects: "sequential curtailments."

"I have the Governor's office in Sacramento, Sir," the dispatch assistant

informed Eric Humphrey. "They say the Governor is at his ranch near

Stockton and they're trying to reach him. They'd like you on the line."

The chairman nodded and accepted the telephone. His hand cupping the

mouthpiece, he asked, "Does anyone know where the chief is?" It was

unnecessary to explain that "chief" meant the chief engineer, Walter

Talbot, a quiet, unflappable Scot now nearing retirement, whose wisdom in

tight situations was legendary.

"Yes," Nim Goldman said. "He drove out to take a look at Big Lil."

The chairman frowned. "I hope nothing's wrong out there."

Instinctively, eyes swung to an instrument panel with the legend above it:

LA MISSION NO- 5. This was Big Lil, the newest and largest generator at La

Mission plant fifty miles outside the city.

Big Lil-Lilien Industries of Pennsylvania built the huge machine and a news

writer coined the descriptive name which stuck-was a monster delivering a

million and a quarter kilowatts of electric power. It was fueled by oil in

enormous quantities which created superheated steam to drive the giant

turbine. In the past Big Lil had had its critics. During the planning

stages experts argued it was sheerest folly to build a generator so large

because too much reliance would be placed on a single source of power; they

used a non-scientific simile involving eggs and a basket. Other experts

disagreed. These pointed to "economies of scale," by which they meant:

mass-produced electricity is cheaper. T'he second group prevailed and, so

far, had been proven right. In the two years since it began operating, Big

Lil had been economical compared with smaller generators, magnificently

reliable, and trouble-free. Today, in the Energy Control Center, a strip

chart recorder showed the heartening news that Big Lil was giving its

utmost, running at maximum, shouldering a massive six percent of the

utility's total load,

"There was some turbine vibration reported early this morning," Ray Paulsen

told the chairman. "The chief and I discussed it. While it probably isn't

critical, we both thought he should take a look."

9

Humphrey nodded approval. There was nothing the chief could do here,

anyway. It was simply more comfortable to have him around.

"Here is the Governor," an operator announced on Humphrey's telephone.

And a moment later a familiar voice: "Good afternoon, Eric."

"Good afternoon, Sir," the chairman said. "I'm afraid I'm calling with

unhappy . . ."

It was then that it happened.

Amid the bank of instruments under the sign LA MISSION NO- 5 a buzzer,

urgently insistent, sounded a series of short, sharp notes. Simul-

taneously, amber and red warning lights began blinking. The inked needle

Of NO- 5's chart recorder faltered, then descended steeply.

"My God!" someone's shocked voice said. "Big Lil's tripped off the line."

There remained no doubt of it as the recorder and other readings slid to

zero.

Reactions were immediate. In the Energy Control Center a highspeed

logging typewriter came to life, chattering, spewing out status reports

as hundreds of high voltage circuit breakers at switching centers and

substations sprang open at computer command. The opening of the circuit

breakers would save the system and protect other generators from harm.

But the action had already plunged huge segments of the state into total

electric blackout. Within two or three successive seconds, millions of

people in widely separated areas-factory and office workers, farmers,

housewives, shoppers, salesclerks, restaurant operators, printers,

service station attendants, stock-brokers, hoteliers, hairdressers, movie

projectionists and patrons, streetcar motormen, TV station staffs and