Red Ink (18 page)
Authors: David Wessel
1
“We’re driving”: Interview, Robert Reischauer.
2
“throwing $800 billion out the window”: “Romney
Campaigns in New Hampshire,” Money,
CNN.com
.
http://www.thebostonchannel.com/r/29327664/detail.html
3
CBO’s latest price tag: Congressional Budget Office,
The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2012 to 2022
(Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, January 2012), 9.
http://www.cbo.gov/publication/42905
4
“No one would”: David Weigel, “Douglas Holtz-Eakin: ‘No One Would Argue That the Stimulus Has Done Nothing,’ ”
Washington Independent,
August 9, 2009.
http://washingtonindependent.com/54312/douglas-holtz-eakin-no-one-would-argue-that-the-stimulus-has-done-nothing
5
“Suppose a patient”: Christina D. Romer, “The Economy: Where Are We and What Should We Do?,” League of Women Voters Annual Community Luncheon, August 18, 2011.
http://www.econ.berkeley.edu/∼cromer/The%20Economy%20Where%20Are%20We%20and%20What%20Should%20We%20Do.pdf
6
Harvard’s Larry Summers … Stanford’s John Taylor: Amanda E. McGowen, “Summers Debates Fiscal Policies,”
Harvard Crimson,
February 29, 2012.
http://www.thecrimson.com/article/2012/2/29/Summers-Debates-Fiscal-Policies/
7
A February 2012 survey: IGM Forum, “Economic Stimulus,” posted February 15, 2012.
http://www.igmchicago.org/igm-economic-experts-panel/poll-results?SurveyID=SV_cw5O9LNJL1oz4Xi
8
“I’m a believer”: Interview, Robert Reischauer.
9
In a February 2012 Pew poll: Pew Research Center for the People & The Press, “February 2012 Political Survey,” February 8–12, 2012.
http://www.people-press.org/files/legacy-questionnaires/2-23-12%20Topline.pdf
10
“Debt to the Penny”: “Debt to the Penny—and Who Owns It.”
http://www.savingsbonds.gov/NP/NPGateway
11
“[T]ruth is”: “Remarks by the President on the Budget,” February 13, 2012.
http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2012/02/13/remarks-president-budget
12
Back in 1955: Office of Management and Budget,
Fiscal Year 2013 Analytical Perspectives,
“Federal Borrowing and Debt,” 81.
13
Measured as a percentage: David Wessel, “What’s Going on with Debt in the U.S.,”
wsj.com
, January 23, 2012.
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2012/01/23/whats-going-on-with-debt-in-u-s/
14
“
If the Treasury”: Simon Johnson and James Kwak,
White House Burning: The Founding Fathers, Our National Debt and Why It Matters to You
(New York: Pantheon Books, 2012), p. 123.
15
more than triple: Office of Management and Budget,
Fiscal Year 2013 Historical Tables,
Table 9–7.
http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/budget/Historicals
16
Budget Control Act:
http://cbo.gov/publication/42214
17
“The good news”: Interview, Doug Elmendorf.
18
“If a country”: J. Bradford DeLong, “Budgeting and Macro Policy: A Primer,” February 2, 2012, 12.
http://delong.typepad.com/20120221-budgeting-and-macro-policy-a-primer.pdf
19
“transcendent threat”: Peter G. Peterson remarks, May 15, 2012.
http://www.pgpf.org/Issues/Fiscal-Outlook/2012/05/051512-FS-Pete-Remarks.aspx
20
Drawn to economics: Interview with Paul Krugman,
nobelprize.org
, December 6, 2008.
http://www.nobelprize.org/mediaplayer/index.php?id=1049
21
“How many bills”: Ryan Lizza, “Letter from Washington:
The Gatekeeper,”
New Yorker,
March 2, 2009.
http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2009/03/02/090302fa_fact_lizza?currentPage=all
22
“The question is”: Jane Hamsher, “Krugman Responds to Rahm Emanuel,”
Firedoglake.com
, February 22, 2009.
http://firedoglake.com/2009/02/22/krugman-responds-to-rahm-emanuel/
23
“Premature deficit reduction”: Paul Krugman, “Notes on Deleveraging,”
The Conscience of a Liberal,
January 22, 2012.
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/01/22/notes-on-deleveraging/
24
“You shouldn’t put”: Interview, Paul Ryan.
25
“a strange combination”: Paul Krugman, “Paul Ryan’s Multiple Unicorns,”
The Conscience of a Liberal,
April 6, 2001.
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/04/06/PAUL-RYANS-MULTIPLE-UNICORNS/
26
“I believe the way”: Interview, Paul Ryan.
27
“My daughter jokes”: Peter G. Peterson,
The Education of an American Dreamer
(New York: Hachette Book Group, 2009), p 347.
28
“the godfather”: Alan Feuer, “Peter G. Peterson’s Last Anti-Debt Campaign,”
New York Times,
April 10, 2011, MB1.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/10/nyregion/10peterson.html?pagewanted=all
29
“too much of an all-or-nothing”: Leonard Silk, “Political Costs of Reagan Cuts,”
New York Times,
March 20, 1981.
30
“a growing systemic inability”: Peter G. Peterson, “Spending Limits,”
New York Times,
July 23, 1981.
31
“playing golf”: Interview, Peter Peterson.
32
“engage the American people”: Peter G. Peterson Foundation,
“Q&A with Pete Peterson,” October 7, 2011.
http://www.pgpf.org/Issues/Fiscal-Outlook/2011/06/QA-with-Peter-Peterson.aspx?p=1
33
“On our current course”: “A Letter from Peter G. Peterson to the Super Committee,” November 2, 2011.
http://www.pgpf.org/Issues/Fiscal-Outlook/2011/11/110211_Letter-to-Super-Committee.aspx
34
“Unlike some of my Wall Street”: Peter G. Peterson, “Facing Up,”
The Atlantic,
October 1993.
http://www.theatlantic.com/past/politics/budget/facingf.htm
35
“objective economic advice”: Robert Stanley Herren, “Council of Economic Advisers,”
EH.net
, Encyclopedia.
http://eh.net/encyclopedia/article/herren.cea
36
“The first recession”: Christina D. Romer, “Not My Father’s Recession: The Extraordinary Challenges and Policy Responses of the First Twenty Months of the Obama Administration,” National Press Club, September 1, 2010.
http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/microsites/100901-National-Press-Club.pdf
37
“The evidence is stronger”: Christina D. Romer, “What Do We Know About the Effects of Fiscal Policy? Separating Evidence from Ideology,” Hamilton College, November 7, 2011.
http://www.econ.berkeley.edu/∼cromer/Written%20Version%20of%20Effects%20of%20Fiscal%20Policy.pdf
38
“We don’t have to”: Christina Romer, “The Economy: Where Are We and What Should We Do,” League of Women Voters Annual Community Luncheon, August 18, 2011.
http://elsa.berkeley.edu/∼cromer/The%20Economy%20Where%20Are%20We%20and%20What%20Should%20We%20Do.pdf
39
“a two-handed plan”: Ben Bernanke at House Committee on Financial Services, February 29, 2012.
40
“a geek with guts”: Sheryl Gay Stolberg, “Capital Holds Breath as He Crunches Numbers,”
New York Times,
November 17, 2009.
41
“A quiet man”: Ibid.
42
“You want to be sure”: Interview, Doug Elmendorf.
43
“Why wouldn’t one conclude”: “The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2012–2022,” Hearing of the Senate Budget Committee, February 2, 2012.
44
“I don’t want to speak”: Ibid.
45
“We cannot go back”: Interview, Doug Elmendorf.
46
“The country faces”: David Wessel, “The Federal Deficit Mess in a Single Sentence,”
wsj.com
, November 11, 2009.
http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2009/11/11/the-federal-deficit-mess-in-a-single-sentence/
47
“The country”: Interview, Douglas Elmendorf.
48
“I used to tell the students”: Interview, Leon Panetta.
In addition to the publications and websites of the White House Office of Management and Budget, the Congressional Budget Office, the Tax Policy Center, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, the Bipartisan Policy Center, the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, and the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, the following books provided valuable context and explanation.
Bartlett, Bruce.
The Benefit and the Burden: Tax Reform—Why We Need It and What It Will Take.
New York: Simon & Schuster, 2012.
Dame, Philip R., and Bernard H. Martin.
The Evolution of OMB.
Privately published, Washington, D.C., 2009.
Darman, Richard.
Who’s in Control? Polar Politics and the Sensible Center
. New York: Simon & Schuster, 1996.
Graetz, Michael J.
The U.S. Income Tax: What It Is, How It Got That Way, and Where We Go from Here.
New York: W. W. Norton, 1997.
Hager, George, and Eric Pianin.
Mirage: Why Neither Democrats
nor Republicans Can Balance the Budget, End the Deficit, and Satisfy the Public.
New York: Times Books, 1997.
Johnson, Simon, and James Kwak.
White House Burning: The Founding Fathers, Our National Debt, and Why It Matters to You.
New York: Pantheon Books, 2012.
Joyce, Philip G.
The Congressional Budget Office: Honest Numbers, Power, and Policymaking.
Washington, D.C.: Georgetown University Press, 2011.
Panetta, Leon, and Peter Gall.
Bring Us Together: The Nixon Team and the Civil Rights Retreat.
New York: J. B. Lippincott Co., 1971.
Peterson, Peter G.
The Education of an American Dreamer: How a Son of Greek Immigrants Learned His Way from a Nebraska Diner to Washington, Wall Street, and Beyond.
New York: Hachette Book Group, 2009.
Scheiber, Noam.
The Escape Artists: How Obama’s Team Fumbled the Recovery.
New York: Simon & Schuster, 2012.
Schick, Allen.
The Federal Budget: Politics, Policy, Process.
Washington, D.C.: The Brookings Institution, 2000.
Slemrod, Joel, and Jon Bakija.
Taxing Ourselves: A Citizen’s Guide to the Great Debate over Tax Reform.
Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 1996.
Stein, Herbert
. The Fiscal Revolution in America: Policy in Pursuit of Reality.
Washington, D.C.: American Enterprise Institute Press, 1996.
Stockman, David A.
The Triumph of Politics: Why the Reagan Revolution Failed.
New York: Harper & Row, 1986.
I
n a sense, I have been working on this book for the twenty-five years I’ve been an economics reporter in Washington, a pursuit that depends in part on the willingness of budget experts in and out of government to field reporters’ questions and offer instruction. Among those on whom I have relied over the years and to whom I turned in researching this book were Barry Anderson, Ken Baer, Steve Bell, Stanley Collander, Robert Greenstein, Bill Hoagland, James Horney, Robert Reischauer, Gene Sperling, Douglas Holtz-Eakin, Douglas Elmendorf, Donald Marron, Todd Harrison, Allen Schick, Eugene Steuerle, Conor Sweeney, Susan Tanaka, Eric Toder—and several others who prefer not to be named. Among the reporters on the budget beat whose thorough work I consulted for perspective and detail were Naftali Bendavid, Jackie Calmes, Nathan Hodge, Janet Hook, Ryan Lizza, Lori Montgomery, Dan Morgan, Damian Paletta, Eric Pianin, David Rogers, and Noam Scheiber.
My agent, Raphael Sagalyn, sparked this book, and was a constant and valued counselor from start to finish. Howard and Nathan Means were extremely efficient and perceptive editors, helpful on matters large and small. Roger Scholl at Crown Books was an enthusiastic supporter, offering his advice at key moments. Able copy editor Maureen Clark fixed broken sentences and caught careless errors. Veteran budget reporters Jackie Calmes of the
New York Times
and Janet Hook of the
Wall Street Journal
generously read the manuscript and offered suggestions. Nelson Hsu turned my ideas into clear and attractive charts. Benjamin Grazda, Spencer Wright, and Lois Parshley were agile and conscientious research assistants. The Woodrow Wilson Center for International Scholars provided a quiet place to work and resourceful librarians. The editors of the
Wall Street Journal,
which remains the best place to practice daily journalism, granted me a leave without which this book would not have been possible. Any mistakes are my responsibility alone.
Book-writing is hard on spouses. This book is no exception. My wife, Naomi, put up with my absence, crabbiness, and sleepless nights without complaint, and I love her for that and for many other reasons.
David Wessel is economics editor for the
Wall Street Journal
and writes the Capital column (
wsj.com/capital
), a weekly look at the economy and forces shaping living standards around the world. He appears frequently on National Public Radio’s
Morning Edition
and on WETA’s
Washington Week.
He tweets actively at
www.twitter.com/davidmwessel
.
Previously, Wessel was deputy bureau chief of the
Wall Street Journal
’s Washington bureau. He joined the
Wall Street Journal
in 1984 in Boston, and moved to Washington in 1987. In 1999 and 2000 he served as the newspaper’s Berlin bureau chief. He previously worked for the
Boston Globe,
as well as the
Hartford Courant
and the
Middleton Press
in Connecticut.
Wessel has shared two Pulitzer Prizes, one for
Boston Globe
stories in 1983 on the persistence of racism in Boston and the other for stories in the
Wall Street Journal
in 2002 on corporate wrongdoing.
His book
In Fed We Trust: Ben Bernanke’s War on the Great Panic
was selected by the
New York Times
as one of the 100 Notable Books of 2008. He is also the coauthor, with
Wall Street Journal
reporter Bob Davis, of
Prosperity,
a 1998 book on the American middle class.