Read 2014: The Election That Changed India Online
Authors: Rajdeep Sardesai
Tags: #Literary Collections, #Essays, #Political Science, #General
2014: The Election That Changed India (53 page)
Tables based on actual results (Election Commission of India—ECI) or survey data (Centre for Study of Developing Societies—CSDS)
It was a comfortable victory; 73 per cent or nearly three out of four BJP victories were by margins of over one lakh votes.
| Victory margins (votes) | Seats won by BJP |
| 3 lakh and above | 42 |
| 2–2.99 lakh | 74 |
| 1–1.99 lakh | 90 |
| 50,000–99,999 | 44 |
| 25,000–49,999 | 17 |
| 10,000–24,999 | 6 |
| Less than 10,000 | 9 |
| Total | 282 |
Source: CSDS Data Unit
For the first time the BJP’s national vote share was greater than that of the Congress; even during the Vajpayee years the Congress had been ahead of the BJP in terms of overall vote share.
| Congress’s lead over BJP in terms of vote share | |
| Year | (percentage points) |
| 1984 | +40.61 |
| 1989 | +28.17 |
| 1991 | +16.60 |
| 1996 | +8.51 |
| 1998 | +0.23 |
| 1999 | +4.55 |
| 2004 | +4.37 |
| 2009 | +9.75 |
| 2014 | -11.74 |
Source: CSDS Data Unit
In six states, the BJP’s vote share on its own crossed the 50 per cent mark.
| State | Percentage of votes secured by BJP on its own |
| Gujarat | 58.7 |
| Uttarakhand | 55.3 |
| Rajasthan | 54.9 |
| Madhya Pradesh | 54.0 |
| Goa | 53.5 |
| Himachal Pradesh | 53.4 |
Source: CSDS Data Unit
NDA’s strike rate was above 90 per cent in nine states; cent per cent in six states.
| State | Seats won by NDA / total seats on offer |
| Gujarat | 26/26 |
| Rajasthan | 25/25 |
| Delhi | 7/7 |
| Uttarakhand | 5/5 |
| Himachal Pradesh | 4/4 |
| Goa | 2/2 |
| Madhya Pradesh | 27/29 |
| Uttar Pradesh | 73/80 |
| Chhattisgarh | 9/10 |
Source: CSDS Data Unit
In the southern part of India too, the BJP gave its best-ever performance.
Source: CSDS Data Unit
Note: South India includes Andhra Pradesh (AP—undivided), Karnataka, Tamil Nadu (TN), Kerala, Puducherry, Andaman and Nicobar Islands (A&N Islands) and Lakshadweep.
BJP retained 103 of the total 116 seats it had won in 2009 and snatched 109 from the Congress.
| Seats that . . . | |
| BJP retained since 2009 | 103 |
| BJP snatched from Congress | 109 |
| BJP snatched from Congress allies | 12 |
| BJP snatched from Others | 58 |
| Total | 282 |
Source: CSDS Data Unit
BJP won two-thirds of the urban seats and more than half of the rural ones; Congress could win only two seats with an urban population of over 75 per cent (Ernakulam and Ludhiana).
Source: CSDS Data Unit
Congress’s disastrous performance.
| Congress . . . | Seats | |
| Contested | 464 | Lost deposits on 178 seats |
| Won | 44 | Only 13 won by margins of over 1 lakh |
| Came second in | 223 | 157 of these were lost by margins of over 1 lakh |
| Came third in | 65 | Got less than 15% vote in 35 of these |
| Came fourth in | 117 | Got less than 5% vote in 70 of these |
Source: CSDS Data Unit
Congress fared disastrously even in Reserved seats.
Source: CSDS Data Unit
For the first time in a national election, more Dalits and Tribals voted for the BJP than the Congress.
| Year | Dalit vote for BJP (%) | Dalit vote for Congress (%) |
| 1996 | 14 | 34 |
| 1998 | 14 | 28 |
| 1999 | 14 | 30 |
| 2004 | 13 | 27 |
| 2009 | 12 | 27 |
| 2014 | 24 | 19 |
| Tribal vote for BJP (%) | Tribal vote for Congress (%) | |
| 1996 | 21 | 42 |
| 1998 | 21 | 32 |
| 1999 | 22 | 46 |
| 2004 | 28 | 37 |
| 2009 | 24 | 38 |
| 2014 | 38 | 28 |
Source: National Election Studies conducted by CSDS
Note: Figures weighted by actual vote share of parties in the respective years.
While the Congress performed poorly among Dalits and Tribals, the Muslim support for the party was 38 per cent, the same as it was in 2009.
Source: CSDS Data Unit, National Election Studies conducted by CSDS
Note: Figures weighted by actual vote share of parties in the respective years.
Muslim support for Congress was much greater in states where it was locked in a straight contest with BJP.
Source: National Election Studies, 2014, conducted by Lokniti, CSDS
Note: Bipolar states are Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Rajasthan and Maharashtra (BJP–SS vs Cong–NCP).
On the back of massive and unprecedented support from Hindu Upper Castes and OBCs, the overall Hindu support for the BJP touched an all-time high of 36 per cent, rendering any minority consolidation behind non-BJP parties almost ineffective. Never in the past had Hindu support for the BJP crossed the 30 per cent mark.
| Year | Vote for BJP among Hindus (%) |
| 1996 | 23 |
| 1998 | 28 |
| 1999 | 27 |
| 2004 | 25 |
| 2009 | 22 |
| 2014 | 36 |
Source: National Election Studies conducted by CSDS
Note: Figures weighted by actual vote share of parties in the respective years.
Modi’s popularity (36 per cent) at the time of the Lok Sabha election was nearly twice that of Rahul Gandhi, Sonia Gandhi and Manmohan Singh put together (19 per cent).
| Choice for PM | 2014 NES Post Poll (%) |
| Narendra Modi | 36 |
| Rahul Gandhi | 14 |
| Sonia Gandhi | 3 |
| Mayawati | 3 |
| Mulayam Singh Yadav | 2 |
| Arvind Kejriwal | 2 |
| Manmohan Singh | 2 |
| Others | 9 |
| No opinion | 29 |
Source: National Election Studies, 2014, conducted by Lokniti, CSDS Question asked: After this election, who would you prefer as the next Prime Minister of India? (This was an open-ended question and no names were offered to the respondents.)
Modi’s popularity jumped by nearly two times between July 2013 and April
–
May 2014; Rahul’s more or less stayed where it was.
