A Field Guide to Lies: Critical Thinking in the Information Age (38 page)

Beall, Jeffrey,
144

belief perseverance,
205
–7,
210

Best, Joel,
119

Billings, Josh,
125
–28

bimodal distribution,
17
–18,
18

bin widths, unequal,
71
–72

birth rates,
67
,
67
–71,
68
,
69
,
70
,
71
,
151
,
154

Blaine, David,
231
–245

breath-holding demonstration,
231
,
236
–245

fasting demonstration,
231
,
234
–36

ice-block demonstration,
231
,
232
–33

needle-in-hand demonstration,
234

TED talk of,
231
,
232
,
236
,
244

bosons,
246
.
See also
Higgs boson

bottled water,
176
–77

breast cancer,
111
–14,
115
,
118
,
118

breath-holding demonstration of Blaine,
236
–245

Brewster, Signe,
249
–250

British Medical Journal
,
210

Bush, George W.,
19
,
29
,
29
–30,
30

Cage, Nicolas,
49
,
49
–50

California, water consumption in,
55

cancer

breast cancer,
111
–14,
115
,
118
,
118

and perception of risks,
174
–75

Capehart, Jonathan,
137

car accidents,
116
–17,
202
,
273
n116

Catholic Church,
154

causation,
48
–51

celebrities, reported deaths of,
136

cell phones,
5
,
61

Census of 1960 (U.S.),
91
–92

CERN (European Organization for Nuclear Research),
90
–91,
152
,
248
,
250

Chaffetz, Jason,
40
–41

cherry-picking bias,
161
,
165

Chomsky, Noam,
136

citations,
149

Clark, Dick,
164
,
251

Clark, Sally,
106
–7,
134

classic probabilities,
98
–99,
271
n98

Clinton, Hillary,
148

CNN,
202
–3

coincidence,
49
–50

collecting numbers.
See
data collection

college size,
24

combining probabilities,
102
–3,
218

comparisons,
61
–73

conditional probabilities,
104
–8

asymmetry in,
115
–19

and Bayes’s rule,
108
–9,
272
n108

in court cases,
155

and deductive arguments,
186

visualizing, with fourfold tables,
108
–11,
118
–19

confidence intervals,
82
–84,
84
,
269
n84,
282
n248

confounding factors,
212

conspiracies and conspiratorial thinking,
168
–170

Consumer Price Index (CPI),
94

Consumer Reports,
252
–53

contrapositive statements,
187
,
189

control groups,
158
–160

converse error (fallacy of affirming the consequent),
186
–87,
189

Cook, Tim,
47
,
48

correlation

and causation,
48
–51

definition of,
39

illusory,
198
–200,
199
,
209
–10

in school funding and SAT scores,
38
,
39
,
39
–40

counterknowledge,
168
–177

and conspiratorial thinking,
168
–170

defined,
168

on Internet,
251
,
254

and journalism,
171
–73

and moon-landing denial,
230
,
231

in Orwell’s
1984
,
251

and perception of risks,
173
–75

and persuasion by association,
176
–77,
210

court cases,
16
,
117
,
124
,
155
–56

coverage errors in sampling,
87
–88

crime rates,
31
,
31
–33,
32
,
33
,
173

critical thinking

cultivation of,
222

and emotions,
224
–29

enterprises emphasizing,
252
–53

and the Internet,
252
–53

and known unknowns,
250

ongoing process of,
253

and the scientific method,
252

and the scientific revolution,
181

] watchers,
54

cum hoc, ergo propter hoc
,
49

cumulative sales graphs,
46
–47,
47

currency of information,
146

Dallas Observer
,
240
,
242

data collection,
75
–96

and definitions,
93
–95

and fraud,
181
–82

and measurement errors,
90
–93

and participation biases,
86
–88

and reporting biases,
88
–89

and sampling,
76
–85

and sampling biases,
85
–86

and selective windowing,
162

standardization issues in,
90

for unknowable/unverifiable results,
95
–96

David and Goliath
(Gladwell),
159

death.
See
mortality and death

deductive reasoning,
183
–190,
192
,
193
,
194
–97

definitions in data collection,
93
–95

Democrats,
62
–63,
139
–140

Dentec Safety Specialists and Degil Safety Products,
140
–41

Dey, Dimitriy,
157
–58

discredited information,
146
–48

distribution

bimodal distribution,
17
–18,
18

skewed,
20
–21,
24

doctors and employment trends,
63

domains of websites,
137
–38,
141

drowning deaths,
49
,
49
–50,
173

Durant, Will and Ariel,
154

ecological fallacy,
18
–19

education, purpose of,
215

Eidelman, David,
237

Einstein, Albert,
250

electrons,
246

elementary particles,
246

emotions

and critical thinking skills,
224
–29

and justification of decisions,
124