Secrets of Professional Tournament Poker, Volume 1 (4 page)

EV = $200(0.5) – $100(0.5) = $50

So, every time you flip the coin getting 2-to-1 odds, you will win $50 in equity. Clearly, you should play that game as much as you can.

You can use the formula above to solve a huge range of problems in poker and determine if a play is profitable.

For a simple example, if you have A-A, your opponent goes all in with 4-4 and you call, you know you are going to win 80 percent of the time. If you don’t know what percentage of the time each hand will win against each other hand, feel free to study one of the numerous online poker hand calculators until it becomes second nature. So, if you both get all-in for 10,000 chips, you can determine your equity in the hand because you know you will win the 20,000-chip pot 80 percent of the time, so EV = 20,000(0.8) = 16,000. So, you put 10,000 chips in and are going to get 16,000 out on average, so you will make 6,000 chips in that situation every time you get all-in because you effectively own 80 percent of the 20,000-chip pot.

Every time you make a bet when you are the favorite, you will make money in the long run, and if you make a bet when you have a negative expectation, you will lose in the long run. When you lose when you’re all-in with A-A against 4-4, it does not mean you played the hand poorly or lost equity. In the short run, poker has huge variance, but in the long run, if you get the money in good more than you get it in bad, you will win. Variance is basically the difference between short-term results and your long-term expectation.

Now that we know every decision you make will either gain or lose money (or occasionally break even), we can decide the proper way to play most hands. But clearly, it is tough to know your equity in some situations, because to do so you need to know your opponents’ range of hands. A simple example of a situation where you are unsure how much money you lose is if you raise 7-2o in first position. You don’t know everyone’s range at the table, so all you can do is guess how much you lose on average in this situation. If you play online and use programs to track your wins and losses with each hand, you can figure out how much you lose by making any play because they will average your wins and losses and come up with a fairly precise estimate of how much you should expect to lose on average when you raise this hand from first position.

Another situation where you will constantly have to guess about your equity is when you think your opponent either has a good made hand or a draw. Suppose after a few limpers, you limp with A
-10
on the button, which is a questionable play, and the flop comes A
-9
-8
. Everyone checks to you, you bet and only the big blind calls. The turn is the 3
. Your opponent checks and you bet again. At this point your opponent raises all-in.

In this spot, assuming you know your opponent will never go all-in here with less than A-Q but will go all-in with numerous draws, you can give your opponent a range of 9-9, 8-8, 3-3, A-9, A-8, A-3, 9-8, 9-3, 8-3, any suited hand with spades, and maybe hands like J-10 and 10-7. You can exclude A-A, A-K and A-Q, because most players would raise these hands after a few limpers. This range isn’t exact, but should be enough to give you a general guideline regarding what he would push with. Now the question is simple. What odds do you need to call? It turns out that you have around 50-percent equity against this range, so you have a clear call if you’re getting anything more than even money, and you are. If you know your opponent will never push a draw but will instead only push the range of made hands that are two pair or better, you now need to be getting better than 3-to-1, as you only have 25-percent equity. If you are unsure if your opponent will push some or no draws, you should make your best guess about your equity and determine whether you are getting the right price to call.

Every poker decision, including folding, can be classified in terms of EV. In general, you want to make the play that is the most +EV or the least –EV. Suppose you have 8
-2
in first position. You can raise, which is -EV, call, which is also –EV, or fold, which is neutral EV. Even though you don’t actually gain by folding here, you do not lose. Any money not lost is essentially the same as money gained.

From time to time you will find a +EV situation you should pass up. Late in tournaments, you have many chances to go all-in if you are short-stacked, but you should pass on some of these because if you lose on one marginally +EV play, you will lose the opportunity to make more +EV decisions later. Suppose you think that pushing in a situation will show an expected profit of 0.25BBs. This isn’t much, so you should probably wait for a spot where you can profit 1BB or more.

As you can see, there is a lot of math and guessing involved when deciding if you are getting the correct price to call a bet. You can figure out your equity in most poker situations, although the math gets quite tricky when you are dealing with implied odds and you have to account for every turn or river card. There is a lot written about EV online but this simple primer should be more than enough to get you on your way.

Pot Odds

Every time you consider calling a bet, you should think about the pot odds you are getting. By the same note, any time you raise, you need to think about the pot odds your opponent will be getting. While it is important that you can determine your pot odds, it will become simple with experience. You don’t have to be 100-percent exact with your pot-odds calculations. If you can estimate decently well, you will have no problems.