Secrets of Professional Tournament Poker, Volume 1 (5 page)

Say you have A
-4
on a 9
-6
-2
board. Your opponent goes all-in. Should you call?

The answer depends entirely on your pot odds. If you assume your opponent has a hand that is 9-8 or better, meaning he will always have at least top pair, and he never has a flush draw, which may or may not be true, you will win around 42 percent of the time. Again, you can figure this out using a poker hand-equity calculator. In this situation, you need to get around 1.4-to-1 to break even. If you think you are better than the opponents at your table, you need slightly better odds than break-even. If you think you are worse than your opponents, you need slightly worse than break-even. So, if you are getting even money, meaning the pot is $100 and you have to call $100, which usually won’t happen in holdem, you should fold. If the pot is $120 and you have to call $100, meaning you need to win 45 percent of the time, you should also fold. This is solved by 100/220 = 45 percent. Say you think you are as good as your opponents, so you need to win 42 percent of the time.

You can solve for this with the equation 42 percent = 0.42 = 100/(100 + x). Then you have 42 + 0.42x = 100, so x = 58/0.42 = 138. So, the pot has to have 138 chips in it to make it worth your call, assuming the bet is 100.

You will usually hear poker players talk in terms of odds. For example, if there are 150 chips in the pot and you have to call 100 more, you are getting 1.5-to-1 because for every 1 chip you are putting into the pot, there are 1.5 chips already in it. Another example: if there are 300 chips in the pot and you have to put 100 in, you are getting 3-to-1.

You can translate odds to percentages by dividing the second number by the total of both numbers and multiplying by 100, so for 3-to-1, you compute

1/4 × 100 = 25 percent

which means you have to win 25 percent of the time to break even. If you’re getting 321-to-91, it would be

[91/(321 + 91)] × 100 = 91/412 × 100 = 22 percent.

This is where estimating comes into play. When you are playing, you may find it tedious to constantly calculate your exact pot odds. Most of the time, it isn’t even necessary to calculate your pot odds. Suppose you are getting something around 6-to-1 and you know you will win 30 percent of the time. There is no point in doing the math because you should know that 30 percent is way better than 6-to-1. If there are two 500-chips, seven 100-chips, and 15 25-chips in the pot and you have to call two 500-chips, you can estimate this by seeing the two 500-chips in the pot plus around 1,000 in other chips. So, you will be getting around 3-to-1 because you have to put in 1,000 chips, and the pot contains about 2,000 chips plus the 1,000 your opponent bet. You don’t have to count out each individual chip. As long as your estimates are fairly accurate, this should work with few problems and save you a lot of mental energy.

Another important concept is implied odds. Assume you and your opponent both have 1,000 chips, and you have 8
-4
on a 9
-6
-2
board.