Secrets of Professional Tournament Poker, Volume 1 (44 page)

If the pot is small by the river, I am much more likely to throw out a small bluff. Suppose the small blind limps and I check in the big blind with 9
-5
. The flop comes J
-6
-2
. We both check. The turn is the 10
. We check again. The river is the K
.

If my opponent checks, I will usually bet 2/3 pot because it is fairly clear he doesn’t have much of a hand. Notice I could have, and probably should have, bet on the flop or turn. If for some reason you do get to the river in small pots, especially if no one has shown any interest in the pot, try to pick it up.

Determining the amount you should bet on the river as a bluff is actually just a math problem. The amount you bet will determine the percentage of the time your bluff must succeed. For example, if you bluff the size of the pot, you need your bluff to succeed half of the time to break even. If you bluff 1/2 pot, you need it to work 33 percent of the time. In general, the less you bet, the more often you will be called. Determining the optimal amount to bet is a balancing act, but it will come together with practice. Think about your opponent’s range, determine what percentage of hands will call and then bluff an amount that will induce him to fold a large percentage of his decent, but not strong hands. You should usually bluff the smallest amount possible to get the job done.

Suppose on the river you know your opponent’s range is made up entirely of missed draws or the nuts. You also know he will never bluff-raise you. You have the nut low, so you can’t win by checking. In this case, your river bluff should be fairly small because he will fold to a 1/3-pot bet with a missed draw and will never fold with the nuts. Obviously most ranges aren’t nearly this polarized, but this should give you the idea.

You should generally not bluff against multiple opponents on the river, especially if the pot has some chips in it. If you have a busted draw against two opponents, one of them almost certainly has a decent made hand. If you have the made hand, you are better off checking, hoping to get to a cheap showdown. Remember that in multi-way situations, as the pot gets large, you should play your hand more straightforwardly, which means rarely bluffing.

When you are Raised on the River

Only the most loose, aggressive, thinking opponents will even consider raising the river without a strong hand. In fact, I can’t remember the last time I raised the river as a bluff, simply because people call too often. When a player raises the river, you are almost always looking at a very premium hand. But from time to time, you will be shown a stone bluff.

A standard opponent will most likely raise the river as a bluff when he flops a strong draw and misses. He is usually upset that he had so much value and it turned into nothing. Because of this, he goes crazy and raises the river. So, if the board contains one or more missed draws, I will be much more likely to call a river raise with a weaker holding. Say you raise A
-J
to 3BBs out of your 150BB stack from middle position and the small blind calls. The flop comes J
-10
-2
. Your opponent checks, you bet 4BBs and he calls. The turn is the 3
.