The Last Israelis - an Apocalyptic, Military Thriller about an Israeli Submarine and a Nuclear Iran (23 page)

Eventually, the movie in Samir’s mind brought him to the goodbyes he had exchanged with his beloved spouse at the end of the picnic.

****

“Thank you for coming on such short notice…I know how busy your clinic is, so I know it wasn’t easy.”

“Don’t be silly. There was no way that I was going to miss seeing you.”

“It was way too short. But at least now I won’t be surprised if I come home to security guards for the new member of the Knesset that I’m married to.”

She chuckled. “Don’t worry. I promise not to get elected before you come back.”

“Give my love to all of the children.”

“I will….Be safe, Samir.”

“Don’t worry, everything will be fine.”

“I love you.”

“I love you too, Regda.”

They hugged as their lips merged into a deep kiss one last time. Samir eventually had to break off the embrace, and his wife reluctantly released him to the submarine waiting beyond the picnic area.

Chapter 27: Hunted by the Enemy

Daniel’s worst fears felt closer than ever to being confirmed, intensifying his anxious need for more information. But the captain still managed to fall asleep, thanks to sheer physical and mental exhaustion, and his special, somniferous technique. Over the course of his 20 years in the silent service, he had been in countless nerve-racking situations of uncertainty and tension. Experience had taught him that not sleeping properly produced a “misfortune multiplier”: the more he carried his problems into a bunk, the less he actually slept there, and the less alert and effective he was at managing problems after leaving the bunk, creating a vicious cycle of more anxiety-producing problems that made it harder to sleep the next time. So Daniel had developed a disciplined, quasi-meditative technique of focusing his mind on a single, happy moment every time he crawled into a warm bed for some sleep. For the last few years, that moment was from a trip that he had taken to a beautiful grove in Rosh Pina with his wife, Sivan, and their three children. The five of them had played in the picturesque garden of a bed and breakfast cabin that they had rented. The natural serenity of the place, where they would stay for a whole week, gave Daniel and his wife a heightened feeling of calm and unity. His older children played “matkot,” a popular paddle ball game usually played by Israelis on the beach, as he and his wife chased their youngest daughter around in a game of tag. Esty had released one of those endlessly carefree laughs of childhood, when everything was so perfectly simple and love was so near. And that was how Daniel fell asleep every night, regardless of what had been on his mind even moments before.

At 2200 hours, his alarm woke him up. Daniel freshened up a little, ate a quick sandwich, and downed a cup of coffee. 30 minutes later, he was back at the control center. The communications department informed him that they had tried deploying the buoy a few more times but still received no message from headquarters; Daniel tried to convince himself that the buoy was still defective in some way. On its 25
th
day at sea, the Dolphin had reached a position of 24.19"N, 59.07"E, about 100 kilometers north and slightly east of Muscat, Oman. Continuing on their current course at five knots, they would reach their destination at the Strait of Hormuz in about 48 hours.

As the submarine kept moving northwest, further into the Gulf of Oman, it entered a navigable area increasingly crowded with commercial and military watercraft. Starting from Abu Dhabi and moving east about 430 kilometers to Muscat, there are 14 ports of various sizes: eight belonging to the UAE, four in Oman along its gulf coast north of Sur, and two belonging to Iran. The port at Muscat alone receives about 5.5 million freight tons of imports and exports every year. About 35% of the world’s seaborne oil shipments, mostly exports destined for Asia, pass through the Gulf of Oman.

In addition to all of the commercial freight, the militaries of neighboring countries (not to mention those of foreign navies like the U.S. Fifth Fleet) added a dizzying level of sea traffic to the relatively small area. Saudi Arabia maintained its large Eastern Fleet in the Persian Gulf. The United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Kuwait collectively added over 100 military watercraft to the area. By far the biggest navy in the region, however, belonged to Iran, with a fleet of surface ships that included five frigates and three corvettes, 25 missile boats, about 100 coastal patrol boats, approximately 160 inshore patrol boats, 22 amphibious watercraft, and two dozen support vessels. The Islamic Republic also had three Russian SSK Kilo attack submarines, and 20 Iranian-built mini submarines.

The typically congested Gulf of Oman proved to be particularly busy on the Dolphin’s 25
th
day at sea, indifferent to Daniel’s distressed need to rise to periscope depth so that he could get an update from naval command. It wasn’t until 0200 hours the next day, about 23 hours since the last communication with headquarters, that the traffic tapered off enough to attempt a safe rise to periscope depth. At that time, Jacob, Zvi, and Boutrous were all still convalescing, so Ambesah was on sonar duty, Michael sat at the helm, and Eitan was navigating.

“Sir, it looks like traffic has finally slowed down up there,” Ambesah reported. “Maybe this time it will stay like that.”

“Eitan, what’s our position after rising to periscope depth?”

“24 degrees 20 minutes North, 59 degrees 07 minutes East, Sir.”

“Ambesah, are we clear at a position of 24 degrees 20 minutes North, 59 degrees 07 minutes East?”

“There is one biologic, maybe a whale, in the area, but it’s moving away in a southwest direction, Sir.”

“No vessels?”

“No – actually, one just showed up now, Sir…Studying it for more details, Sir.”

Daniel had been through similar situations several times that night when, just as it seemed possible to rise, another watercraft showed up. Given the excess time that had already passed since they last received an update, and considering how dramatically the strategic context could be evolving, it was necessary to take some risk in order to obtain the update.

“Sir, it’s possibly a submarine, three kilometers away from that position, but it’s moving east from there.”

Daniel considered the worst case scenario: if it was an Iranian Kilo class submarine and it detected them, the enemy ship could travel at its maximum speed of 25 knots and reach striking distance in as little as three minutes. But three minutes could be enough at least to attempt a communication.

“Rise to periscope depth at 24 degrees 20 minutes North, 59 degrees 07 minutes East.”

“Yes, Sir,” replied Michael.

The Dolphin began to rise from its current depth of 100 meters to its periscope depth of 13 meters. But just as their submarine was approaching the target position at a depth of 20 meters, Ambesah called out a warning.

“Sir, I think that submarine spotted us. It reversed its course and is now traveling towards us at five times its earlier speed. Propeller signature is Kilo class, probably Iranian, Sir.”

“Change course to due west and dive to 150 meters. Gradually increase speed to 20 knots.”

“Yes, Sir.”

Even though the propeller wasn’t definitively identified as Iranian, Daniel had no doubt about the provenance of the submarine, given its behavior. Trying to rise to periscope depth now would be far too risky and the new priority had just become evading an enemy submarine on the offensive. But to avoid losing too much time in reaching the Dolphin’s operational objective, the captain would try to maintain a course moving west or north towards the Strait of Hormuz when undertaking any evasive maneuvers.

“Depth of 150 meters, Sir.”

“Release bathythermograph.”

“Yes, Sir,” Eitan replied. With the press of a button, he launched a special buoy that descended about 60 meters below the submarine to see if there was a water layer of a different temperature or salinity. If so, such a thermocline could enable the Dolphin effectively to disappear from the Kilo’s tracking instruments because of the dissimilar water layer’s distorting effects on sonar. A few minutes later, Eitan analyzed the reading and gave Daniel the good news.

“Thermocline detected, Sir.”

Daniel turned on the public announcer only in those areas with loud systems that needed to be turned off by the crew: “We have an Iranian submarine pursuing us. Rig for silent running until further notice.” There was no point in broadcasting his warning in the crew’s quarters at that early hour. Doing so would disturb their much-needed rest and possibly cause them to make noise that they otherwise wouldn’t have made, had they just continued sleeping.

The captain wanted to keep the thermocline escape as an additional defensive measure if silent running mode was not enough to shake off the Kilo’s chase. Now it would just be a waiting game to see if their initial evasive maneuver had worked.

“Slow speed to five knots.” Daniel was careful to move at maximum speed sparingly and only when it might be necessary to flee an enemy. He wanted to conserve the submarine’s air-hungry battery, to avoid having to rise to periscope depth for more air before it was safe to do so.

“Yes, Sir,” Michael whispered.

Daniel stepped over to Ambesah’s sonar monitors so that they could whisper to each other about what they saw while the submarine continued on its westerly course at a depth of 150 meters. They seemed to have successfully fled the Kilo. After about 30 minutes with no sign of the enemy submarine, Ambesah gave Daniel an expectant look, as if to ask if they were in the clear yet. Daniel shook his head. His gut told him that the Kilo’s pursuit wasn’t over yet. And about ten minutes later, the Iranian stealth boat again showed up on the sonar screen at a distance of three kilometers.

“Dive to 240 meters.”

“Yes, Sir.”

The crew that was awake would now have to wait in suspense again to see if the hunter had lost its prey in the fog of a thermocline. Daniel’s instincts told him that this would not be an easy escape. This Kilo was very determined tonight – which seemed to corroborate his concerns about the bigger picture and reignite his apprehensive eagerness for an update from headquarters. Once again, however, he would have to master his emotions because one false move in this situation could mean not only that he never gets the update or completes the mission, but also that he and his crew never leave the Gulf of Oman.

Still silent running and now cruising at a depth of 240 meters, Daniel and Ambesah would intently watch the sonar monitor for the next 90 minutes, to see if the Kilo appeared again. The crafty enemy submarine seemed to have a hide-and-wait strategy that would try to exploit the first moment that the Dolphin – due to fatigue or inattention – miscalculated or dropped her guard. By staying just off the edge of its prey’s radar, it could move in for an attack as soon as it suspected that the target had forgotten that there was still a hunt underway. Daniel was so certain that this was his adversary’s strategy that – despite how impatient he was to get an update – he would make his counterpart on the Kilo continue in the game for another 90 minutes, just to be safe. There was also something psychologically satisfying about proving to the hunter that his prey knew exactly what he was up to and could be equally patient and circumspect in the contest.

After three hours of silent running, cruising at five knots in a water layer that should have obscured the Dolphin’s path from the submarine stalking it, Daniel was about to conclude that it was safe to try to rise to periscope depth. But his intuition told him first to test that theory because hiding in a thermocline wasn’t guaranteed to work: its success depended on a variety of complex conditions, including the equipment and actions of the other submarine. The test wouldn’t take much time and could provide some valuable tactical intelligence against a particularly resolute adversary.

“Slow to four knots.”

“Yes, Sir.”

By slowing down just slightly after three hours of maintaining the same speed, the Kilo’s captain might not notice the minor change in velocity, and his resulting failure to slow down at the same time would soon put his vessel on the edge of the Dolphin’s radar, which is exactly what happened.

“He’s not going to stop waiting us out, Sir,” Ambesah whispered.

“He sees that we’re moving closer into his waters, which will only help him,”
the captain explained. “Especially because he knows that we’ll eventually have to rise for air.”

“So why don’t we change to a southerly or westerly course, Sir?” Eitan asked.

“Because we have to balance our escape needs with our mission needs,” Daniel replied, sensing trepidation in Eitan’s voice. “We will find our escape opportunity soon enough.” He wanted to test his adversary’s thinking a bit more. If the Dolphin suddenly tripled its speed, would the Kilo follow suit to maintain its strategy of silent patience? Or would it go even faster to try to move in for a surprise kill, fearing that its prey might otherwise get away?

“Accelerate to fifteen knots.”

“Yes, Sir.”

The Iranian hunter increased its chase speed to 25 knots.

“Sir, at their new speed they’ll be within firing distance in about two minutes,” Ambesah noted with concern.

Daniel spoke into the intercom: “Secure from silent running. Prepare to fire decoys.”

“Yes, Sir,” replied the submariners manning the combat control system.

“Shall I increase speed to maximum, Sir?” Michael asked.

“No. We’ll do that just before the torpedo hits our decoy.” Daniel knew that if the Iranian submarine saw them fleeing too soon before its torpedo hit something, the enemy vessel would assume that what it hit was a decoy and not the fleeing submarine. But if Daniel timed their escape to occur just before the torpedo’s impact with the Dolphin’s decoy, the Kilo’s captain was more likely to conclude that he had hit the Dolphin. And then, when the hunter’s sonar systems were most disoriented due to the shockwaves sent out by the decoy and its subsequent impact with the torpedo, full-speed acceleration by the prey was most likely to succeed.

Ambesah, Daniel, and the weapons team closely watched the sonar monitor screen as the Iranian submarine gradually moved closer. Suddenly a flashing red blip, representing the Kilo’s fired torpedo, was moving towards the Dolphin’s position.