Trigger Point (25 page)

36

MARION ELLMAN GAZED out the window at the towering rectangular face of the UN building across the street from her office as she listened to Bob Livingstone on the phone. Deputy Secretary of State Doug Havering was sitting with Livingstone in Washington. Steve Haskell was in Beijing, and Tomasina Rollins, the US ambassador to South Africa, was on the line in Johannesburg.

Livingstone wanted to form a view of the next step in dealing with the South African seizure of power by the ANC, given that the British appeared determined to introduce a Security Council resolution calling for sanctions before the end of the year. He spent the first minutes of the call outlining what he knew of the latest developments from the White House. Susan Opitz had made the call to her Chinese counterpart, he told them, and a statement from Zhang or another high official in the Chinese regime was awaited. In the mind of the White House, there was no connection between that demand and the South Africa question. He personally doubted that the Chinese government agreed.

He asked for Rollins’ view of what was happening in South Africa.

Tomasina Rollins was a hugely experienced ex-assistant secretary of state for Africa, one of the few US ambassadors who knew her country as well as anyone in the State Department or CIA. Her view was that the South African president, Membathi Mthwesa, had been assured by China that they would veto the British resolution. The conundrum for the US would follow from that. The British, she had heard, were planning to pull their embassy out of South Africa and impose their own sanctions if the resolution failed. The US would have to decide whether they were going to do the same.

‘If we use sanctions they’ll really have to hurt. Cosmetic stuff will just feed into the South Africa-as-victim line that Mthwesa’s pushing, which will boost his position. Are we prepared to get really tough? And will it work even if we are? Frankly I think our friends in Beijing will happily take any exports from South Africa that we don’t want. We’d be handing Mthwesa something to hit us with in return for virtually zero impact on the ground.’

The shape of the arrangement being proposed by the Chinese, as far as Rollins was aware, was a restoration of the constitution with elections engineered so as to guarantee the ANC’s victory, after which China would use its diplomatic efforts to support the government in saying that the elections had been free and fair and the constitution had genuinely been restored. Tied up with that was a big Chinese trade and aid package and an understanding that if the west didn’t accept the arrangement and treated the ANC government as a pariah, China would make good any economic impact that resulted.

Within the ANC itself there were a number of groupings that opposed the Chinese arrangement. One faction didn’t want to see South Africa as a one-party state and would prefer to see the ANC contest elections even if they might lose them. This was the smallest group since most of the activists who thought like this had been driven out of the party over the last couple of years. A somewhat larger group feared that an arrangement with the Chinese would make President Mthwesa untouchable within the party. They wanted the ANC to rule but they didn’t want Mthwesa as president for life. And finally, the largest opposition group within the ANC had nothing against seeing the country become a one-party state, even if Mthwesa would be there for the next twenty years, but as a matter of pragmatism they didn’t want to see South Africa as some kind of pariah client state of China. They saw that as a poisoned chalice, and if that was the only alternative, they would take their chances with elections. They also saw a serious risk of significant disturbances if Mthwesa got his way. Rollins believed that if the ANC went for the China protector arrangement, with the ANC installed as the only party of government, and if KwaZulu Natal refused to accept it, then something approaching a civil war really could break out. It wasn’t clear that the top leadership of the ANC was prepared to fight such a conflict and this was likely the only thing still holding Mthwesa’s key supporters back from agreeing to the deal.

‘That’s our best lever,’ Rollins said. ‘Hollow gestures like cosmetic sanctions that actually strengthen Mthwesa’s position internally are not in our interest. Breaking off relations and taking ourselves out of the picture … if that’s even under consideration, that would be insane. Our best shot is to help strengthen the pragmatic group in the ANC and try to help them find a way out. A statement of concern in the Security Council will be fine. A vetoed resolution that amounts to an ultimatum would be a disaster. I would judge that it will strengthen Mthwesa enough for him to say yes to the Chinese.’

‘We need to get the Brits to hold back on this resolution,’ said Marion, who had already come to this conclusion after speaking to Rollins a couple of days earlier.

Havering laughed.

‘Doug, it’s poorly timed and it’s going to fail. If we’ve got people in the ANC who are on our side, like Tomasina says, we need to do what we can to strengthen their position. We need to be very firm that we’re not going to accept this situation but equally firm that we’re going to help South Africa find its own way out of it.’

‘Mthwesa’s never going to go for that,’ said Havering.

Ellman tried to suppress her frustration. The Chinese wanted time to craft a deal that enough of the ANC would accept. The US could use that same time to make sure that didn’t happen, working to craft a different deal. In the first instance it might take the shape of some kind of power-sharing arrangement with the opposition rather than elections, which would stand as an interim solution for a year or two. The US could offer a support package to sweeten it.

‘Doug,’ she said, ‘this isn’t for Mthwesa. This is to give something for the internal opposition within the ANC. This just needs a little patience. We need to give them a weapon and give them enough strength to use it.’

‘I don’t see us going to the president and saying the Brits are putting down this resolution and we’re going to abstain.’

‘I didn’t say we abstain. We need to get the Brits to hold fire. Bob, do you agree with that? Let’s try to get them to hold fire or put down something that’s less confrontational, and let’s work on an approach that might give the ANC opposition a way out.’

‘This president is not going to abstain on a resolution that is so clear cut about democracy,’ said Havering before Livingstone could reply.

‘Doug,’ said Marion in exasperation, ‘what I just said is we talk to the Brits and try to get them to hold off.’

‘The president won’t want you to do that. He’s expecting a resolution. And right now, he’s not in any mood to try to stop it. In fact, he wants it.’

Ellman frowned, trying to understand. ‘What are you telling me?’

‘He’s seen a paper.’

‘When?’

‘Rose asked for one.’

‘And you’ve already
given
him one?’

‘The president’s not happy with China right now. Do you understand, Marion? He’s not happy.’

‘And this is going to make them behave more congenially?’

‘Marion,’ said Livingstone, ‘there’s nothing to stop us putting down an alternative strategy.’

Nothing, thought Marion. And nothing to stop them trying to get the president to consider it after they had apparently given him an opposite strategy already.

There was silence on the phone. Ellman didn’t trust Doug Havering. He had obviously made up his mind that Bob Livingstone was a living husk and now it seemed that he was openly working around him with the White House. And Bob was just as much at fault for letting him.

‘Look,’ said Livingstone, ‘let’s find out how serious the Brits are about this and what they’re planning to do when the resolution fails. I’ll talk to London.’ He waited, listening to hear if anyone had anything else to say. ‘That’s a first step.’

‘Mr Secretary,’ said Marion, ‘can I have two minutes with you after this call?’

SHE WAITED UNTIL the others called off.

‘Marion, go ahead,’ said Livingstone.

‘Bob, this isn’t going to work.’

‘What isn’t?’

‘This. This idea of supporting a resolution the Chinese are going to veto and then getting left in a position where we have to decide what to do when the Brits pull out of South Africa.’

Livingstone sighed. ‘Marion, I thought you feel strongly about the South Africa situation. I thought you wanted a resolution.’

‘I want a result. I want to see South Africa restored to democracy. If a resolution doesn’t get us there, forget it. We need to work with forces in the ANC regime who want a restoration. We need to strengthen them against Mthwesa. Does a resolution do that? It doesn’t. All it does is strengthen Mthwesa and make things worse. And it gets the Chinese pissed. We haven’t even got a statement from them over Fidelian yet. Do you think this is how we’re going to get it? We can’t keep slapping them in the face.’

Livingstone was silent for a moment.

‘Marion, it would be very bad if they didn’t say anything. The consensus at the National Security Council last week was that we would understand that as an admission of guilt on Zhang’s part.’

‘That would be a poor interpretation without something else to evidence it.’

‘I agree.’

‘Bob, is that what Opitz said to their finance minister? That we’d interpret it as an admission of guilt if they didn’t make a statement?’

‘I don’t know. I gave my input to the draft of what she was going to say. She was getting input from the White House as well. I wasn’t there when she spoke.’

‘Have you seen a transcript?’

‘No.’

‘You know, Bob, if they think that’s our attitude, they won’t do it.’

‘That’s what I told them. I said it to Susan. If there’s any way, shape or form they can interpret this request as a threat, you can forget it. Better not to speak to them at all.’

Marion frowned. The notion of getting a Chinese statement on Fidelian seemed a forlorn hope.

‘What’s happened to our two guys who were captured in Uganda?’ she asked suddenly. ‘Have you heard anything?’

‘No,’ said Livingstone. ‘What’s that got to do with this?’

‘Nothing. I just wondered.’ Marion paused. ‘You know, there’s a good chance Zhang won’t make a statement. Why should he? It makes him lose face. Effectively we’re asking him to say he miscalculated on this one. He would have to be extremely well disposed towards us to say that.’

‘He can find a form of words.’

‘He’d have to be extremely well disposed to say it in any form. If we want any chance of getting that statement, we need to tell the Chinese we’re not in support of the British resolution.’

‘I can’t do that.’

‘I’ll tell Liu.’

‘No! Marion, you will not speak to Liu about this. Not without the president’s approval.’

She didn’t reply.

‘Marion?’

‘I heard you, Bob.’

There was silence on the phone.

‘Marion, how important do you think this South Africa thing is to Zhang?’

She wasn’t sure. The first resolution condemning the suspension of the South African constitution had sailed through the Security Council. But it was no ultimatum, and carried no threat of sanctions. It was hard to imagine even such a gentle statement getting through today. ‘It’s becoming important, I think. Let me ask you a question, Bob. Do you really think Zhang miscalculated on Fidelian?’

‘Probably. I can’t see why he’d want to bring this down on himself.’

‘Bob, do you know Joel Ehrenreich?’

‘I know the name.’

‘He’s published a new book. You should read it.’

‘Send me a copy. Look, Marion, I’ve got to go. Is there anything else?’

‘Maybe we should work with the Chinese on this. Maybe we should offer to sit down, China, us, South Africa, a tripartite thing, and see if we can figure out a solution.’

‘That’s a not a bad idea. Unfortunately, I don’t think the president would agree.’

‘Then he’d be wrong. Bob, he’s wrong on this. If we back the British we gain nothing more than satisfying our own sense of moral righteousness. We give up the ability to exert any influence. We win a very minor battle and lose the war.’

Livingstone sighed. ‘Marion, I’m not saying you’re wrong, but for this president, this is a very easy decision. It’s a question of do you stand up for democracy or don’t you?’

‘I’m not saying we don’t stand up for democracy. Of course we do. But there are ways–’

‘And the president likes this one.’

‘Then the president’s wrong and you need to tell him.’

‘Marion,’ retorted Livingstone angrily, ‘I don’t just
tell
the president anything! I’m sorry. I’m not Gary Rose. I’m not John Oakley. In this administration that’s not how it works.’

37

FOUR DAYS AFTER the initial report of the two US airmen being moved to Sudan, there was now near certainty that the men were there. The CIA had a sighting from a reliable source to add to the first source of information. Monitoring of Sudanese security communications had uncovered electronic traffic that, beneath the thin veil of a few childish code names, almost certainly referred to the Apache pilots.

There had been no statement from the Chinese government. A week had passed since Susan Opitz spoke with Finance Minister Bai.

The markets had paused, ready to jump but not sure in which direction. One day saw small rises and claims that the worst was over, the next day would see the rises reversed and claims that the worst was yet to come. Interbank lending activity was still virtually nonexistent as uncertainty continued over the viability of individual banks whose stock prices bounced around as one rumor replaced another. The Fed continued to provide liquidity, which was keeping the system afloat. Market analysts and media commentators seemed to be expecting something to come out of China, although no one knew that Opitz had made an approach. It was a temporary position. The logic of the panic was still there, if not the urgency. Until there was some clarification of how Fidelian had been allowed to fail two weeks previously, the logic would remain.

The National Security Council convened at 1pm. Opitz told the group that in her view there was potential for another significant fall across the markets, and it wouldn’t take much. In circumstances such as these, even an event that at first sight looked trivial could act as a trigger.

Gary Rose spoke briefly to inform the members of the council that the two surviving airmen, Captains Pete Dewy and Phil Montez, were believed to have been in Sudan for the past four days.

Bob Livingstone looked at the president in incredulity. Four days? Four days and he hadn’t been told? He opened his mouth to speak but stopped himself. He was aware of the way other people at the table were looking at him, the way you look at the chump who’s the last guy to find out what everyone already knows.

He hoped the president realized that balancing his demand for a Chinese statement on Fidelian with his agreement to give US support for a resolution on South Africa had just got a whole lot more complicated.

In Uganda itself, Mortlock Hale reported, an intense onslaught of drone attacks had accounted for up to an estimated hundred enemy casualties since the attack in which Jack Duffey and Harley Gauss had died. That assault seemed to have scattered a large number of LRA fighters and some had turned up in areas of lighter cover where drones could operate more effectively.

‘What about Gauss?’ demanded the president. ‘Did we find his body?’

‘No, sir.’

‘Any idea where it is?’

‘We won’t find it until we capture some of their guys and get the chance to question them. At the moment, given that we’re restricting ourselves to unmanned vehicles, that’s unlikely to happen.’

‘We’ve got to get that body,’ muttered the president.

‘Frankly, Mr President, by now I don’t know what will be left of it.’

‘We’ve got to get it, General. You tell that to Pressler.’

Hale nodded. He outlined what was known about the current location of the two missing airmen. Defense intelligence had them in the southern third of Sudan, with the last reliable sighting outside the town of Rumbek, two hundred miles from the Ugandan border. The area was under constant satellite surveillance. As long as the men were still in that southern region, they could be reached by American forces operating out of their Kenyan base at Lodwar.

‘Who will we be fighting?’ asked Gary Rose. ‘LRA or Sudanese?’

‘Could be either. Could be both.’

‘We should also be aware that China has military advisors in the country,’ said Ryan Ferris, the director of national intelligence. China took almost all Sudan’s oil and it was a widely known fact in the intelligence community that, without admitting it, China had significant numbers of military advisors helping the regime maintain itself against long-running insurgencies in the west and south.

‘Advisors or troops?’ said Livingstone.

‘It’s a fine line, Mr Secretary. If you’re asking whether the Chinese in there can strap on a gun, the answer’s yes. We think Dewy and Montez have probably been handed over to the Sudanese, although at this point we can’t definitively say. The question is somewhat moot, anyway. We know the Sudan government knows about them from our electronic surveillance. If the LRA’s still got them, it’s because at this stage it suits the Sudanese to let them keep them.’

‘So we’re planning on going in if we think we can get them?’ said Opitz.

‘You bet,’ said Oakley. ‘They hold our guys, we go in.’ He threw a glance in Bob Livingstone’s direction. ‘They don’t need a UN resolution to know that.’

‘I think we’ll locate them,’ said Ferris. ‘Sudan isn’t Beirut.’

‘If they’ve handed them over to the Sudanese,’ said Livingstone, ‘what are they getting for them?’

‘Guns. Possibly more sophisticated weapons. They’re probably looking for ground to air capability.’

‘And the Sudan government?’ said the president. ‘Why the hell do they want in to this?’

Rose answered. ‘We have half their government still under indictment for crimes against humanity. We have a supposed no-fly zone over Darfur that’s been in a place for a decade. We have sanctions against any kind of financial dealings with their regime and it’s basically only China and its friends who deal with them.’

‘And they think we’re going to drop our sanctions over two hostages?’

‘They might. They might just be dumb enough to believe that.’

‘Jesus, let’s hope not.’

‘Mr President,’ said Bob Livingstone, ‘in the event that we don’t find Dewy and Montez, someone’s going to have to put pressure on the Sudan government.’ He hated to say it, but someone had to. It was as if he had been assigned the role of party-pooper in chief and was condemned to play it at one meeting after the other. ‘We all know who that’s going to have to be. Something’s going to have to give.’

The president gazed at him for a moment. ‘What do you suggest?’

Livingstone explained that by persuading the British to hold off on their resolution, or at least not backing it, they would appear to be giving something to the Chinese, which might persuade them to be helpful over Fidelian and over the men in Sudan.

‘That’s like paying a kidnapper,’ said Oakley.

‘It’s not. It gives us time to help strengthen a coalition within the ANC against the Chinese arrangement. It works in our favor even though it looks like it works in theirs.’

‘Exactly. It looks like it works in theirs.’

‘That’s not the reality.’

‘Reality is we go in and get our guys ourselves.’

‘Reality is,’ said Livingstone, feeling his heart pounding with anger, ‘that’s all very well but the
reality
is that General Hale here doesn’t actually know where they are, or am I mistaken, General? No. So if that stays the same, we’re going to need China’s help to get them out. John, you can shake your head as much as you like but that’s how it is. And we still want them to give a statement about Fidelian, and you’re saying we still want them to support a sanctions threat over South Africa. Plus a whole bunch of other things that are coming up in the next year over the Arctic, climate change, you name it. Just think about how much we want from them.’

‘We’ll get our guys,’ said Oakley. ‘Ask me to trust the US army or Zhang and his cronies in Beijing, and I know who I’d trust.’

Livingstone almost thumped the table. What kind of an argument was that?

‘Bob,’ said the president, ‘you can go ahead and talk to these elements in the ANC who you say are on our side.’

‘And the resolution?’

‘That’s separate. If the Brits bring it, we back it.’

‘Then we need to ask them not to bring it.’

‘The British prime minister’s spoken to me. He needs to bring it and I’ve said we’ll back him.’

‘And that’s exactly what China wants us to do. It plays into their hands. They’ll veto it and all we’ll achieve is to undermine the people we want to strengthen in South Africa. It strengthens Mthwesa and drives him into China’s arms.’

‘I’ve said we’ll back it.’ The president’s tone was curt. ‘I can’t tell Zhang I’m not going to back democracy in South Africa to get our two guys back. That’s the deal you’re proposing.’

‘With respect, sir, it’s not. What I’m saying is we’re actually more likely to get democracy in South Africa if we don’t have a resolution. Let’s give the Chinese the time they think they want, and we’ll use that ourselves for our own purposes.’

‘Well, I’m sorry but that doesn’t work because it would look like a deal. John’s right, it would look like we’re paying a kidnapper. Perception’s the reality. You pay once, you pay again. That’s not the kind of relationship I’m prepared to have with Zhang.’

‘Mr President, that’s not–’

‘Bob, write a paper.’

Oakley grinned.

Livingstone opened his mouth to speak, then stopped, seeing the way the president was watching him. Beneath the table, his hands were shaking. He felt ill, almost nauseated. Marion Ellman’s words at the end of their last conversation had stung him and he had pushed harder in this meeting than he generally did. He loosened the knot of his tie, feeling clammy and breathless. He wasn’t a confrontational man and going head to head with John Oakley was something he dreaded. And even having done it, he felt that he had been ineffectual.

The president was speaking again. ‘I’m assuming at this stage we keep it quiet about our guys being in Sudan.’

Hale nodded.

‘Sudan needs to know that we know they’ve got our people and we expect them back,’ said Oakley. ‘We need to tell those bastards we’ll go in and take our guys if they don’t give them back right now.’

‘Bob, you want to make sure they get that message?’

Livingstone looked up and nodded.

‘I’ll give you a draft,’ said Rose.

‘General,’ said the president, ‘Admiral Pressler is ready to move, I assume?’

‘We can go at a moment’s notice. As soon as we have a location, it’ll be your call.’

The president nodded. Thanksgiving was three days away. He wondered if there was a chance the two pilots would be back.

‘Okay,’ he said. ‘Let’s do that. Now, the other thing I want to know is, what’s going on with Zhang? Anyone hear anything? Is there going to be a statement or not?’

No one knew.

‘Mr President,’ said Susan Opitz, ‘I understand Congress is going to be calling Bill Custler to testify after Thanksgiving.’

Knowles closed his eyes for a moment. That was great. That was just what they needed.

‘If Custler knows some kind of detail about what was going on in the Chinese government and testifies to that effect, it might make a statement by the Chinese irrelevant anyway.’

‘When’s he being called?’

‘Next Monday.’

Knowles sat back in his chair and let out a long breath. It was possible that Zhang was waiting to see what Custler would say. The Chinese president wouldn’t want to make a statement and then have the CEO of Fidelian contradict him. That would mean another week without a word from the Chinese side.

‘I’ve spoken to Custler once since it happened,’ said Opitz. ‘He refused to divulge anything that went on between him and his board. I believe he does have the right to stay silent on that before the committee. If he chooses not to, if he wants to drop some kind of bombshell, I don’t know what it’s going to be.’

‘Don’t you think we should find out?’

‘Mr President?’ It was the president’s counsel. ‘I think it would be extremely unwise for any official of the administration to approach Mr Custler at this point, now that he’s been called by Congress. From the outside it could easily be construed as an attempt to interfere with his testimony. If the secretary or anyone else chooses to go that route they’d need to have counsel at that meeting and be prepared to provide a verbatim transcript of the conversation.’

The president smiled incredulously.

‘I’m serious, sir.’

‘That sounds pretty strong.’

The lawyer nodded.

The president looked at Opitz. ‘You’ve really got no idea what he’s going to say?’

The Treasury secretary shook her head.