Zero Hour: A Post-Apocalyptic EMP Survival Fiction Series (The Blackout Series Book 2) (24 page)

Reports described the explosion as spherical in shape. The resulting shock wave expanded in all directions and created an incredible aurora that was seen as far away as Honolulu, about a thousand miles away from the detonation point. The observing scientists noted that the electrons traveled away from the explosion at incredible speeds, following the Earth’s magnetic field, and then dropped into the upper atmosphere. As they collided with the atoms and molecules comprising the Earth’s atmosphere, the electrons were absorbed—generating the man-made aurora.

However, the scientists were not there for the light show. When the bomb detonated, the electrons underwent an incredible acceleration, creating a brief, but extremely powerful magnetic field. This was what they were looking for—an electromagnetic pulse. Starfish Prime caused an EMP far greater than expected. The shock wave drove much of the instrumentation off the scale, causing great difficulty in compiling accurate measurements. The Starfish Prime electromagnetic pulse also made those effects known to the unaware public, by causing electrical damage in Hawaii. The strength of the EMP affected the flow of electricity for a thousand miles, knocking out about 300 streetlights, setting off numerous burglar alarms, and damaging a telephone company microwave link. The EMP damage to the microwave link shut down telephone service throughout the Hawaiian Islands.

While the EMP had been predicted by scientists, there was another effect that had not been anticipated. The electrons from the blast didn’t descend into the Earth’s atmosphere, but instead lingered in space for months. They became trapped by the Earth’s magnetic field, creating an artificial radiation belt high above the surface.

The scientists discovered when a high-speed electron collides with a satellite, it could generate a miniature electromagnetic pulse. The net effect was that these electrons could strike satellites and disrupt their electronics. The pulse of electrons from the Starfish Prime detonation damaged at least six satellites, all of which eventually failed due to the blast.

Nuclear scientists around the world were astonished. The size of the pulse generated was not anticipated by anyone. As a result, future tests by the U.S. were conducted with a much lower yield. In a report issued by the Defense Threat Reduction Agency in 2010, the results of the Starfish Prime test were cited as the primary evidence of the threat that an EMP would pose to satellites and other space assets.

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APPENDIX B

Space Weather: A Primer

Best-Selling Author Bobby Akart

The Prepping for Tomorrow Series

Because you never know when the day before —

is the day before.

Prepare for tomorrow!

Author Bobby Akart, the founder of Freedom Preppers, has been a tireless proponent of adopting a preparedness lifestyle. As he learned prepping tips and techniques, he shared them with others via his writing on the American Preppers Network website, and in his bestselling book series—
The Boston Brahmin
and
Prepping for Tomorrow
.

In The Boston Brahmin series, political suspense collides with post-apocalyptic thriller fiction. Bobby’s attention to detail and real-world scenarios immerses the reader in a world of geopolitical machinations and post-apocalyptic drama. Preparedness skills and techniques are interwoven in the plot in way that the reader can be given a real-world scenario to envision.

The Prepping for Tomorrow series is the culmination of Bobby’s research and real-world experiences provided in a concise guide for new and experienced preppers alike.

The Blackout Series is intended to provide the reader a glimpse into the lives of ordinary Americans as they face a catastrophic collapse event in the form of a massive coronal mass ejection.

What is Space Weather?

Space weather is primarily driven by solar storm phenomena that include coronal mass ejections (CMEs), solar flares, solar particle events, and solar wind. These phenomena can occur in various regions on the sun’s surface, but only Earth-directed solar storms are the potential drivers of space weather events on Earth. An understanding of solar storm phenomena is an important component to developing accurate space-weather forecasts (event onset, location, duration, and magnitude).

CMEs are explosions of plasma (charged particles) from the sun’s corona. They generally take twenty-four to forty-eight hours to arrive at Earth, but in the most extreme cases they have been observed to arrive in as little as fifteen hours. When CMEs collide with Earth’s magnetic field,
they can cause a space weather event called a geomagnetic storm, which often includes enhanced aurora displays. Geomagnetic storms of varying magnitudes can cause significant long- and short-term impacts to the Nation’s critical infrastructure, including the electric power grid, aviation systems, Global Positioning System (GPS) applications, and satellites.

A solar flare is a brief eruption of intense high-energy electromagnetic radiation from the sun’s surface, typically associated with sunspots. Solar flares can affect Earth’s upper atmosphere, potentially causing disruption, degradation, or blackout of satellite communications, radar, and high-frequency radio communications. The electromagnetic radiation from the flare takes approximately eight minutes to reach Earth, and the effects usually last for one to three hours on the daylight side of Earth.

Solar particle events are bursts of energetic electrons, protons, alpha particles, and other heavier particles into interplanetary space. Following an event on the sun, the fastest moving particles can reach Earth within tens of minutes and temporarily enhance the radiation level in interplanetary and near-Earth space. When energetic protons collide with satellites or humans in space, they can penetrate deep into the object that they collide with and cause damage to electronic circuits or biological DNA. Solar particle events can also pose a risk to passengers and crew in aircraft at high latitudes near the geomagnetic poles and can make radio communications difficult or nearly impossible.

Solar wind, consisting of plasma, continuously flows from the sun. Different regions of the sun produce winds of different speeds and densities. Solar wind speed and density play an important role in space weather. High-speed winds tend to produce geomagnetic disturbances, and slow-speed winds can bring calm space weather. Space weather effects on Earth are highly dependent on solar wind speed, solar wind density, and direction of the magnetic field embedded in the solar wind. When high-speed solar wind overtakes slow-speed wind or when the magnetic field of solar wind switches polarity, geomagnetic disturbances can result.

The Deadly Threat of a Coronal Mass Ejection – Solar Flare

A powerful electromagnetic pulse, whether resulting from a nuclear-delivered EMP or a massive solar storm, could collapse the power grid and the critical infrastructure of our nation.

Is the threat real? Renowned American astronomer, Phil Plait, who is a self-proclaimed skeptic, is known as The Bad Astronomer because of his work in debunking common misunderstandings about space events. "People sometimes ask me if anything in astronomy worries me," says Plait, when asked about the threat of a deadly CME. "Something like this is near the top of the list."

There is good reason to be concerned. A National Academy of Sciences study found there is a twelve percent chance that a monster solar storm will strike Earth within the next decade. A solar event of that import could cause two trillion dollars’ worth of damage in the first year of recovery alone—twenty times the cost of Hurricane Katrina.

But, what about the human cost? Studies frequently cite economic loss. How would the destruction of the power grid and other critical infrastructure; like the internet, banking, and government be affected? Has such a storm ever hit Earth?

Yes, several times. Imagine our way of life without power for weeks on end, as a result of a massive solar flare striking the Earth. It happened in 1859, in what is commonly referred to as the Carrington Event.

On Sept. 1, 1859, British astronomer Richard Carrington noticed a brilliant solar flare over England. In the days that followed, a succession of coronal mass ejections struck Earth head-on. Auroras illuminated the night sky from Africa to Hawaii. "The light appeared to cover the whole firmament," one Baltimore newspaper reported. "It had an indescribable softness and delicacy." The effects were more than aesthetic. EMPs from the storm caused telegraph systems — known as the
Victorian internet
— to fail throughout North America and Europe; in some cases, lines sparked and offices caught fire. Otherwise, the damage was minimal.

Nonetheless, for telegraph operators in the Americas and Europe, the experience caused chaos. Many found that their lines were just unusable—they could neither send nor receive messages. Others were able to operate even with their power supplies turned off, using only the current in the air from the solar storm.

From historical reports, one telegraph operator said, "The line was in perfect order, and skilled operators worked incessantly from eight o'clock last evening until one o’clock this morning to transmit, in an intelligible form, four hundred words of the report per steamer Indian for the Associated Press."

Other operators experienced physical danger. Washington, D.C. operator, Frank Royce said, "I received a very severe electric shock, which stunned me for an instant. An old man who was sitting facing me, and but a few feet distant, said that he saw a spark of fire jump from my forehead to the sounder."

At the time, the telegraph was a new technology and never experienced technical difficulties of this type. But the story offers an important warning for modern society. The Carrington Event provides evidence of the fragility of electrical infrastructure. Scientific American reported in October of 1859: “The electromagnetic basis of the various phenomena was identified relatively quickly. A connection between the northern lights and forces of electricity and magnetism is now fully established."

This event was long before humanity became utterly reliant on electronics — as it was when history repeated itself 153 years later.

In 1989, a far smaller solar flare sent a pulse of radiation that left six million people in Quebec without power for up to nine hours. Much more alarming, was a solar super storm that barely missed Earth in July 2012. Astronomers say the sun spewed out a huge magnetic cloud that tracked straight through our planet’s orbit. Fortunately, for civilization, the Earth was elsewhere in its path around the sun at the time but had the storm roared through nine days earlier, a worst-case scenario would have occurred. Satellites involved in crucial global communications (including GPS) would have been ruined, large electrical transformers would have been destroyed, and ATMs would have stopped functioning. The internet would have been disabled on a massive scale. Most people wouldn't have been able to flush toilets, which rely on electric pumps.

Three years later, "we would still be picking up the pieces," says astronomer Daniel Baker. "The July 2012 storm was, in all respects, at least as strong as the Carrington Event. The only difference is,
it missed
."

In a word—TEOTWAWKI—
T
he
E
nd
O
f
T
he
W
orld
A
s
W
e
K
now
I
t.

Over the last one hundred and fifty years, the world’s critical infrastructure has become a more integral part of daily life. In the nineteenth century, telegraphs composed a comparatively small and relatively non-essential part of everyday life. Their successors today—including the electrical grid and much of the telecommunications network—are essential to modern life.

Is the current system any more protected from catastrophic interference than the telegraph of the nineteenth century? Can the power grid handle a terrorist attack, or severe weather events, or a solar storm?

There has never been a real test to prove it, but there is a robust debate about the vulnerability of the power grid. The most dangerous and costly possibilities for major catastrophes, the collapse of the nation’s critical infrastructure, might visit the United States from any number of methods.

One scenario is a repeat of the solar storm as big as the 1859 Carrington Event. A solar event of this significance hasn't struck the earth since, although there have been smaller ones. As a result of the Quebec blackout in 1989, there were complications across the interconnected grid and a large transformer in New Jersey permanently failed.

In 2003, residents of the northeastern United States experienced a grid-down scenario. It doesn't take an unprecedented solar flare to knock out power. The combination of a few trees touching power lines, and a few power companies asleep at the wheel, plunged a section of the nation into darkness. The darkness can spread. As the difficulties at Ohio-based FirstEnergy grew and eventually cascaded over the grid, electrical service from Detroit to New York City was lost. The 2003 event was a comparatively minor episode, compared to what might have happened. Most customers had their power back within a couple of days and the transformers were relatively unaffected.

Compare that event with the incident in Auckland, New Zealand. Cables supplying power to the downtown business district failed in 1998. The center of the city went dark. Companies were forced to shutter or relocate their operations outside of the affected area. The local Auckland utility had to adopt drastic measures to move in temporary generators. They even enlisted the assistance of the world's largest cargo plane—owned by rock band
U2
, to transport massive generators into the area. It took five weeks for the power grid to be fully restored.

There are contrarians. Jeff Dagle, an electrical engineer at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, who served on the Northeast Blackout Investigation Task Force argued, “one lesson of the 2003 blackout is that the power grid is more resilient than you might think.”