Lethal Trajectories (32 page)

“I met with the president earlier today to review the Camp David meeting, and he likened the situation to the converging elements of a perfect storm. His metaphor is appropriate, and I plan to use it to frame the multiple challenges that need to be addressed in their entirety, as one humongous problem.

“Perfect storm
describes our situation to the letter. Think of the colliding forces in play: oil and energy shortages, disastrous new climate trajectories, domestic and global economic systems on the brink of collapse, a growing world population with rising expectations facing chronic water shortages and famine, and geopolitical hotspots ready to erupt. The fuse has been lit by the Saudi embargo, and it could easily set off a chain reaction of catastrophic proportions. In this milieu, it’s difficult to address one set of problems without touching the others; everything’s interrelated.”

Clayton paused to refill his coffee cup and give the team a chance to digest what he had just said.

“Our job,” he continued, “is to develop a grand strategy that addresses the entire tangle of interrelated challenges, with the Saudi crisis as its launch point. That’s the easy part. The hard part is that our plan has to be ready for presentation to the American people in less than two weeks.”

Secretary Thompson could no longer control his anxiety. “Mr. Vice President, this will take months of careful planning—and even then it looks impossible. What do we gain by imposing this impossible deadline?”

“In a perfect world, Thurmond, we’d be able to take our time. But we don’t have the time. The fuse is lit, and already its effects are rippling through the world. According to the CIA report you received, we have less than five months to resolve the crisis before the global economy suffers a complete meltdown. We have no choice.”

In an uncharacteristic interruption, Admiral Coxen interjected, “I can see dealing with the Saudi crisis, Mr. Vice President, but why do we have to deal with everything else at the same time?”

“Here’s the deal, Admiral: while our immediate focus will be geared to the Saudi oil crisis, we would be facing serious challenges even without the Saudi crisis. Just as the Saudi crisis is the catalyst for our perfect storm, it can also be the catalyst for uniting our people behind a grand plan to address the multiple crises we face. We can’t address one challenge
effectively
without addressing the others, and the grand plan I envision ties it all together in a single strategic construct.”

The admiral nodded as the outlines of McCarty’s vision started to take form.

“Politically speaking, America has let energy, climate-change, the economy, deficit spending, and so much more go on for years without resolution. We knew there were problems, but the political will wasn’t there to make the tough choices required to solve them. Denial was far easier. Unfortunately, the problems intensified over time, and it took only one spark—the Saudi crisis—to send everything up in flames. Payment on our neglected accounts is now coming due—all at the same time, I’m afraid.”

Clayton caught a covert, encouraging wink from Jack, as if he’d whispered,
You’re on a roll, buddy, keep pushing.
Emboldened, Clayton forged on.

“America has always been at its best in a crisis, but first we have to know that a crisis exists. Imagine trying to tell someone one day before Pearl Harbor that within three years America would have fifteen million trained military in uniform; that we would become the arsenal of democracy by transforming our peacetime economy to a wartime footing; and that we would develop an atomic bomb and still have the financial strength after the war to fund the Marshall Plan to reinvigorate Europe. They wouldn’t have believed you, and I can tell you that it wouldn’t have happened incrementally if Pearl Harbor had never been bombed. Another example: the Soviet Union was eating our lunch in the space race until JFK boldly called for putting a man on the moon by the end of the decade, which we did. The American people believed there was a justifiable emergency in these cases to do the impossible, and that’s just what they did.”

Clayton saw that Elizabeth Cartright was smiling—
That’s another person on board,
he thought.

“The Saudis have given us our Pearl Harbor. The embargo poses a major threat to the global economy, and it can’t be addressed in a half-assed manner. We’ll use this adversity to galvanize the country in quest of something greater than all of us—a last chance to preserve our way of life and economic freedom. We’ll position it as an all-out effort requiring personal sacrifice, rationing, and the ‘blood, sweat, and tears’ that once drove Britain out of despair.”

Clayton detected rumblings of a new energy and hope in the team …
his
team. He poured more coffee and continued.

“What I’d like to do now is lay the groundwork for our discussion. Jack and I will start by giving you a rundown on our Camp David meeting with Chairman Lin Cheng and his chief of staff, Wang Peng. I’ll then ask Tony Mullen to review the CIA assessment on the Saudi oil crisis. I should tell you we shared the CIA report with our Chinese guests and they were in almost complete agreement with Tony’s assessment. Then I’ll ask Peter Canton to brief you on his disturbing climate-change memo, which you were all sent a few days ago, and I’ll then say a few words on the economy.”

Clayton paused for questions, but everyone seemed to be scrambling to take notes.

“At the conclusion of these presentations, I’ll ask Admiral Coxen to facilitate a discussion on how we can tie this all together into a strategic plan. It’s going to require your full-time effort for the next couple of weeks, and it’s our number-one national priority. We will use the code name
Operation Safe Harbors
to describe all efforts related to our grand plan. Think of it in the spirit of our end goal: we face a deadly storm, and we seek a safe harbor to shelter us from its threats. Corny, perhaps, but it captures the magnitude of the challenge and the effort required to overcome it.”

The SWAT team took their gloves off and, for the next four hours, spoke with a directness seldom heard in Washington. Voices raised and nerves frayed, but they made an enormous amount of paradigm-breaking progress. Sensing that they had accomplished most of what he had hoped they would, Clayton called for a break. He instructed Admiral Coxen to put together a meeting summary, and then asked that they reconvene at nine thirty.

The long overdue break was a welcome respite from the pressure cooker they had just endured. They helped themselves to the stack of sub sandwiches waiting in the kitchen and laughed nervously in their attempts to shake off the aftershocks of the meeting. Damage-control efforts were made to mend fences after the direct—and sometimes brutally frank—exchanges that had taken place. The break, like their meeting, seemed infused with a strong element of intensity and purpose.

When they had gathered again at the table, Clayton said, “Admiral Coxen, would you summarize the actions we’ve agreed to take?”

“Yes sir, Mr. Vice President. First, the code name Operation Safe Harbors will encompass all planning and operational activities relating to the strategic plan, which you will present to Congress on 16 October. NSC members will submit their plan drafts to me by 1700 hours on 11 October, and I’ll prepare a working document for review on 12 October. We will use the remaining time prior to the congressional address to fine-tune our plan.

“Second, with respect to the Saudi crisis, we will pursue the asymmetrical approach recommended in Option #1 of the CIA Report. Secretary of Defense Thompson and Secretary of State Cartright will coordinate planning in these areas.

“Third, we’ll await the response from China before finalizing plans. Jack McCarty will coordinate and oversee this initiative, but we will proceed with Operation Safe Harbors regardless of the position China takes.

“Fourth, oil and energy rationing will be an integral part of the domestic initiatives taken under Safe Harbors. Secretary Canton will develop a rationing plan and identify the administrative apparatus necessary to support it. It will feature rationing, conservation, and austerity measures, and it will provide energy-mix targets that take into account longer-term climate-change objectives. While recognizing the energy crisis as the immediate priority, Secretary Canton’s recommendations will include climate-change protocols that can be factored into the energy plan and integrated as quickly as possible.

“Last, the economy will need to be aggressively transformed to support Safe Harbors in a manner comparable to America’s transition to a wartime footing in World War II. Vice President McCarty will take charge of this aspect and coordinate efforts with all appropriate departments and parties.”

“Thank you, Admiral Coxen. As usual, you did a superb job of capturing the essentials. There’ll be a ton of staff work to do, and we’ll need to stay on target. Let me know if there are any snags along the way, Admiral.”

“Mr. Vice President,” asked Secretary Cartright, “how are you going to position your speech to Congress on the sixteenth?”

Clayton took a quick look at his notes and then replied, “I’ll first explain the Saudi situation and assure the American people that we’ll not cave to Mustafa’s demands; that we’ll continue to support Israel and that we’ll ask the world to join in this cause—hopefully with China as a partner. I’ll explain this is unlike any crisis we’ve experienced before and that it will require everyone to make sacrifices, in the form of rationing and getting used to living with less.

“I’ll then introduce the perfect storm concept and explain why we need to address this host of pressing challenges all at the same time. The problems we’ve put off addressing for decades—spurred by rising oil prices—are now about to implode around us. I’ll tell them we have a plan to deal with the crisis and explain as much of it as we’re prepared to unveil by October sixteenth. I’ll make no effort to spoon-feed them or downplay the magnitude of the crisis. This will be a transparent effort. They need to know the truth, as hard as it may be to swallow.

“I’m also going to ask Congress for access to the executive powers accorded to the president in time of war, perhaps through the economic equivalent of a declaration of war. The last thing we need is for Congress to nitpick every detail. Safe Harbors will be presented, sold, and executed as a package; there’s precious little time for extended debate on each component.”

As Clayton brought the meeting to a close, the SWAT team members rose to their feet, applauding. He nodded sheepishly, gratified by their show of support. He covered his embarrassment with a few last-minute logistic details and reminded them to report back to Admiral Coxen in the morning.

“Thanks again for coming, folks,” he said, and adjourned the meeting. He thanked each departing team member personally as they left. As he shook Elizabeth Cartright’s hand, he asked her to stick around for a few minutes. He also whispered in Jack’s ear, asking him to stay until he finished talking with Elizabeth.

After the rest of the exhausted team had left, Clayton invited Elizabeth into his den to discuss an entirely different topic. He poured a couple of drinks and motioned toward a pair of chairs by the fireplace.

“What did you think of the meeting tonight, Elizabeth?

“The old Gulf War phrase ‘shock and awe’ comes to mind. In many respects, it was almost surreal—as though we were creating a whole new world—a new American and international order.”

“That’s well put. Do you think it’s doable?”

“The cold reality is that we don’t have any other choices,” she responded. “Our economy runs on oil, the
global
economy runs on oil, and suddenly a huge chunk of that oil is no longer available. We can’t just flip a switch and make it come back, nor can we take it back by military force. There are simply no easy answers. That’s our new reality.”

“Do you think we can sell the American people on the true magnitude of the crisis, Elizabeth?”

“I really don’t think we’ll have to sell them on the crisis. The rising gasoline prices at the pump, the long lines that’ll follow, and the sold-out signs that’ll soon appear will tell them we’re in a crisis. It will hit them at home and at work, and most of all in their pocketbook. The hardest challenge will be convincing them that the sacrifices they’ll be asked to make are necessary and equitable, and that they will solve the problem. People need to know there’s a light at the end of the tunnel.”

Clayton nodded appreciatively. Her wise answer confirmed that the question he was about to ask was the right one.

“Elizabeth, it’s late, and we’re both tired, but I’ve given a great deal of thought to what I’m about to ask—and so has President Burkmeister. I need to find a new vice president to succeed me, and frankly, I can think of no one better than you. Would you be willing to consider this new assignment?”

Clayton remained silent as he watched Elizabeth process his question.

“I’m surprised and flattered, Mr. Vice President, and I can only wonder what made you select me over all the other potential candidates out there.”

“That’s a fair question, but before I answer, I would like to ask that you continue to call me Clayton in private as you always have. Now, back to your question; the short answer is that there are many reasons you were my first choice for the assignment. First, you are a proven diplomat with the international expertise I need; second, you know the issues and can hit the street running; and last, I’m comfortable working with you and I trust your judgment. Your involvement and experience will play a crucial part in the success of my administration.”

“Thank you, Clayton. Those are kind words, and I think you know I also hold you in high regard. You mentioned the president; I’m curious about his thoughts on the matter.”

“He feels the same as I do, Elizabeth. I think it’s safe to say that if he were in my shoes, he’d probably make the same choice.”

“I’m flattered, but I learned long ago that it’s wise to sleep on any major decision.”

“That makes perfect sense, Elizabeth. I’ve been in your shoes! My intent tonight was not to push for an immediate answer—unless it was a flat-out no—but rather to offer it for your consideration.”