Lethal Trajectories (28 page)

Mustafa took a swig of water from his nearby bottle and opened the meeting for discussion. His plans were respectfully debated but not challenged. Prince Bawarzi then asked possibly the most pointed question of his career.

“King Mustafa, how long can we hold out before we must once again sell our oil in the open market?”

“An excellent question, Prince Bawarzi, and one we must all consider. To a large extent, the world’s reaction to our Five Demands will dictate the speed at which we release oil for sale. Getting our OPEC partners to limit their oil exports will also be important. Realistically, we wouldn’t want to withhold our oil for more than a month. It is, after all, our largest source of revenue, and we can’t carry on indefinitely without it. On the other hand, higher oil prices mean we can get by with scaled-back sales.” They smiled and nodded in cautious agreement.

Mustafa checked his watch. “My brothers, I must now make our next broadcast. On the matter of our oil sales, I expect that we will reevaluate our plan soon, as our enemies begin to grovel for the oil they require.”

As the radio crew brought their equipment into the room, the high command settled back into their chairs. No one mentioned that the king had felt no need to have them review this message ahead of time. Mustafa watched as the radio tech counted down three … two … one … and motioned for him to begin.

“My fellow partners in OPEC, and citizens of the world, this is King Mustafa ibn Abdul-Aziz speaking to you from the royal palace in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

“We have recently beaten down a bloody insurrection launched by Zionists and American-sponsored forces to overthrow the sovereign government of Saudi Arabia. While I am pleased to report the infidels were defeated and are being brought to justice, the battle was won at a heavy price.

“For almost seventy years, Arab and other nations now constituting the OPEC partnership have been subjected to exploitation by the Western powers and others. We have experienced their aggression in the two Gulf Wars and in Venezuela, Africa, and Middle Eastern countries, including Saudi Arabia. We have watched them dishonor our culture and religion. We have experienced the repressive boot of their unwanted intrusions into our country. We have witnessed their ongoing support of the Zionists in their merciless occupation of the Palestinian homeland. Sadly, we have seen them exploit our precious oil resources to support their decadent lifestyles while disregarding our ways and our culture.

“While we are peace-loving people, my brothers, our patience is not unlimited. We can no longer suffer this oppression, and today we say to those who exploit us, ‘Enough, your days are over.’

“Saudi Arabia produces almost 20 percent of the world’s oil, and together, my brothers in OPEC, we account for over 50 percent of all oil produced. We can live without the infidels, but they cannot live without us. We will begin our resistance by establishing a new order in the marketplace.

“We outlined the principles of this new order in our broadcast two days ago in the form of our Five Demands. I will not take the time now to repeat them, but I will say this: we will closely monitor the actions of all OPEC nations and the countries they supply. We have long memories and do not forget our friends; nor do we forget our enemies or those who would fail to support us at this pivotal point in history.

“We have just three things to ask of our OPEC partners. First, we ask that you honor our request to temporarily withhold all oil shipments until we can put an end—once and for all—to the petrodollar transactional system that has so benefited the American imperialists to the detriment of all other nations.

“Second, we ask that you make no special side deals with the satanic Western powers or users of our oil from
all
Pacific Rim countries. Such pandering dilutes the integrity and bargaining power of OPEC. Certainly, we will remember those OPEC partners and importing countries that honor this request, but woe to those that don’t.

“Last, we remind you of our request that you sever all diplomatic relationships with the Zionists in support of our repressed brothers in Palestine and the greater Middle East.

“We offer you a new tomorrow in our alliance for world peace. We offer you a better world where your culture and religion will be respected and cherished, not dishonored. We offer you a permanent end to the colonial exploitation you have so long suffered. And last, we offer you a new prosperity and your rightful place in the world.

“While the choice we offer between good and evil may seem obvious, it is, nevertheless, a choice you must make. Saudi Arabia could threaten you with military actions or economic sanctions, but that is not our way. Instead, we are brothers in a common cause with common enemies, and that is all the motivation we, as fellow OPEC partners need.

“We thank all of you for your friendship, support, and partnership in this new world order. Allahu Akbar!”

L
in Cheng awoke at Camp David feeling refreshed despite his fitful night’s sleep. After getting his bearings, he began his morning ritual of stretching and deep breathing exercises. The increased flow of oxygen to his brain supercharged his energy level and gave him greater clarity of mind.

His thoughts turned to yesterday’s discussions with delegates from three Pacific Rim countries. While the Chinese delegation had fielded many questions about Chunxiao, the incident had clearly been relegated to secondary status as the implications of the Saudi situation started to sink in—a feeling reinforced by briefings from his own intelligence forces. He was grateful for the positive tone of the conference call with his nine-member Politburo Standing Committee. Their support was crucial, given the consensus nature of his government, and they had been receptive to the idea of his meeting at Camp David—more open to it, anyway, than they had been when he first proposed it. They offered their words of caution, but it seemed they were more preoccupied with Chunxiao than with the far greater threat of the Saudi crisis. After leaving their last meeting of the day, he and Wang Peng made a surreptitious departure from their hotel to a nearby helipad and boarded an unmarked helicopter bound for their secret rendezvous.

Upon last night’s arrival they had enjoyed a relaxed three-hour meeting with the McCarty brothers. Lin appreciated their efforts to establish a relationship before getting down to business—something that Americans often failed to do—and he was actually eager for today’s meeting. Still, he knew better than to get carried away over gut feelings. An objective analysis was always best, and for that reason he had arranged to take his morning walk with Wang Peng. He jumped out of the shower, dried off, dressed briskly, and then walked out to the front door.

“Good morning, Mr. Chairman,” came the familiar voice of Wang Peng. “I hope you were able to get a good night’s sleep.”

“Good morning to you, Peng, and I slept quite well—thank you for asking.”

The heavy morning mist was refreshing as they set out for their walk along the lighted pathways. Wang almost always waited for his boss to start the conversation, but this morning he asked almost immediately, “What were your impressions of last night’s meeting with the McCartys, Mr. Chairman?”

“I liked them both, Peng. Unlike so many American diplomats we’ve met—even members of our own Politburo, for that matter—they projected an honesty and directness that I found refreshing. They were candid in answering our questions, and they weren’t afraid to challenge me when my answers needed clarification. I appreciated Clayton’s assessment of the American political scene as well as the challenges he faced before being sworn in as president. He didn’t have to tell us that, but it made me more comfortable being candid with him.”

Wang replied, “I have always found both of them to be a breath of fresh air; they were always less concerned about what I wanted to hear and more interested in telling me what I should hear. It has made for many interesting discussions over the years.”

They continued their walk in silence for a while before Wang asked, “What was your impression of the CIA report last night?”

“Overall,” Lin responded, “I think it was an accurate report, at least as far as I can see. I’m not entirely certain why we were given a copy; could it have been written for our consumption only? I don’t trust the CIA, but I must admit their facts and conclusions seemed to be on target.” Lin thought for a moment before continuing.

“The central proposition,” Lin continued in his no-nonsense voice, “seems to be whether or not we should work in collaboration or go our separate ways on the Saudi oil crisis. I have mixed feelings about a collaborative approach with the Americans, based on past experiences, and I would obviously have a hard time selling such an idea to our Politburo. I also think we’re in a much better position than the United States and its allies to go it alone.”

Lin paused as he considered again the possibility that the report was somehow meant to manipulate his decisions. It would be difficult to deliver misinformation within such a bare-bones report, but not impossible. Wang Peng broke into his thoughts.

“Would you agree, Mr. Chairman, that their estimates of our oil consumption patterns and SPR estimates are not far off? It seems to me like we might be able to go it alone for a longer period than suggested, but we could not get around the ultimate issues of access and affordability that plague the global oil market.”

“True, Peng. Also, the new Saudi regime has said nothing to assure us our oil supplies will continue uninterrupted. Generally speaking, a destabilized global environment is not in our best interests—we rely too heavily on foreign trade and the importation of raw materials from other countries. America and the Western powers are still our largest trading partners, and we would lose much if their economies were to crater as a result of oil starvation. I can see some attractive short-term gains in severing our diplomatic relationship with Israel and reducing ties to the West, but I’m not sure this is a wise long-term move. If we get all the oil we need, but lose the trading partners that buy our goods, what have we really gained? Who will buy our products, and what will we do with a large, unemployed workforce?”

“Let me add something that you may not know, Mr. Chairman,” Peng said cautiously. “I had an early morning briefing with our intelligence people and learned that King Mustafa announced in a broadcast earlier today that he was asking OPEC to cease sales of oil to any nonmember countries, including the Pacific Rim countries, meaning China. He also threatened retaliation against buyers and sellers attempting to make deals on the side—that rules out Iran or Iraq as well. Mustafa gave no specific timeframe for the oil embargo, but China was definitely included along with the Western powers in their threat.”

Startled, Lin Cheng considered this perplexing news.
This is insane. Why would they do this?
It would have made far more sense for the Saudis to widen the divide between China and the West by cutting off Western supplies while shipping oil to China. Instead, their new political dynamic almost forced the West and China to work together. Was it possible that the Saudi coup was driven exclusively by religious ideology? It was the only plausible explanation he could see for their actions. Illogical behavior always troubled him.
How can one engage in a meaningful dialogue with such people?

“I’m having great difficulty in understanding the Saudi position, Peng. What do they hope to accomplish by alienating the entire world? Do they really think the world will stand by and watch its economies grind down to a virtual halt? Are they the modern-day version of the Japanese Kamikaze, willing to give their lives—and their country’s—for their cause? Would they sacrifice their nation’s economy, so totally dependent on oil revenues, or is this a giant blackmail scheme? I just don’t know.”

“Nor do I, Mr. Chairman. I can understand their hatred of the Western powers, but it makes absolutely no sense to alienate China as well as all of their OPEC partners with veiled threats. Can any of the OPEC countries turn off their oil spigots without facing dire economic consequences? It doesn’t make sense.”

Nodding, Lin said, “We have worked so hard over the years to build relationships with oil-producing countries, and we have a good base of non-OPEC oil-producing partners like the Shanghai Cooperative. Iran and Iraq have been large suppliers of oil to China, as have several OPEC nations in Africa. Iran is probably one of the reasons the Saudis don’t want any side deals made within OPEC—we all know there’s no love lost between them and the Saudis. Iraq is sufficiently recovered from years of war and civil unrest to exploit this as a major oil producer, but I doubt they would risk everything they have gained to comply with Mustafa’s embargo request.”

Lin looked out over a breathtaking view, seeing nothing but his own thoughts. Wang, equally preoccupied, added, “We have invested heavily in Iraq, and I would agree with you based on my travels there. There’s little chance Iraq will align with the Saudis. The Shiites and Monotheists are not what I would call the best of friends.”

“I agree,” Lin stated. “OPEC is not the monolithic bloc they’d like us to believe they are, and I can see where the Saudis are concerned about side deals. But what can they do about it? In one sense, we could probably go it alone and find our own replacement sources of oil, but it’s a global oil market driven by supply and demand. While we may get around the
access
issue, there’s no way we can get around the
affordability
issue. If the new Saudi regime is successful in reducing supply, and our costs double and triple overnight, where will that leave us? It frightens me to think about the stranglehold a destabilized regime like Mustafa’s could have on the global economy. Is there any practical way of dealing with them?”