The End of Doom (41 page)

24–25
“
increasing international exchange”:
Mark M. Gray, Miki Caul Kittilson, and Wayne Sandholtz, “Women and Globalization: A Study of 180 Countries, 1975–2000.”
International Organization
60 (Spring 2006): 293–333.
www.socsci.uci.edu/~wsandhol/Gray-Kittilson-Sandholtz-IO-2006.pdf
.

conclusion is further bolstered:
Ulla Lehmijoki and Tapio Palokangas, “Population Growth Overshooting and Trade in Developing Countries.” University of Helsinki Discussion Paper No. 621, December 7, 2005.
ethesis.helsinki.fi/julkaisut/val/kansa/disc/621/populati.pdf

“Fertility rate is highest”:
Seth Norton, “Population Growth, Economic Freedom, and the Rule of Law.” PERC Policy Series, February 2002.
perc.org/sites/default/files/ps24.pdf
.

2013 Index of Economic Freedom:
Global Finance,
“Economic Freedom by Country—2013 Ranking.”
www.gfmag.com/component/content/article/119-economic-data/12450-economic-freedom-by-countryhtml.html#axzz2wzLqcuHl
.

Of the 231 countries:
CIA
Factbook
2013.
www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2127rank.html?countryName=Singapore&countryCode=sn®ionCode=eas&rank=224
.

continuing global abatement:
Center for Systemic Peace, “Global Conflict Trends,” October 14, 2013.
www.systemicpeace.org/conflict.htm
.

“after the year 2000”:
David T. Burbach and Christopher J. Fettweis, “The Coming Stability? The Decline of Warfare in Africa and Implications for International Security.”
Contemporary Security Policy
35.3 (October 2014): 421–445.
www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/13523260.2014.963967#.VMbgfcYfku0
.

Africa is rapidly urbanizing:
African Development Bank Group, “Urbanization in Africa,” December 12, 2012.
www.afdb.org/en/blogs/afdb-championing-inclusive-growth-across-africa/post/urbanization-in-africa-10143/
.

African urbanites:
David Shapiro and B. Oleko Tambashe, “Fertility Transition in Urban and Rural Areas of Sub-Saharan Africa.” Originally presented at the 1999 Chaire Quetelet Symposium in Demography at the Catholic University of Louvain, September 2000.
grizzly.la.psu.edu/~dshapiro/Chaire_Quetelet_paper.pdf
.

greater urban-rural differential:
Fanaye Tadesse and Derek Headey, “Urbanization and Fertility Rates in Ethiopia.” Ethiopia Strategy Support Program II, Working Paper 35, International Food Policy Research Institute.
www.ifpri.org/sites/default/files/publications/esspwp35.pdf
.

“Would your life be better off?”
Ramez Naam, The Infinite Resource: The Power of Ideas on a Finite Planet.
Lebanon, NH: University Press of New England, 2013.

2. Is the World Running on Empty?

“recent trends in price”:
John Young, “Mining the Earth,” Worldwatch Paper 109. Washington, DC: Worldwatch Institute, July 1992, 6.

“real commodity prices”:
Office of the Chairman of the Group of 77, “Overview of the Situation of Commodities in Developing Countries,” March 2005,
www.g77.org/ifcc11/docs/doc-04-ifcc11.pdf
.

average prices for energy:
John Bluedorn et al., International Monetary Fund,
World Economic Outlook: Growth Resuming, Dangers Remain,
Chapter 4, “Commodity Price Swings and Commodity Exporters,” April 2012, 125.

food price index:
FAO Food Price Index, Food and Agriculture Organization, January, 19 2014.
www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/
.

“The world is at”:
Richard Heinberg, “Beyond the Limits to Growth,” Post Carbon Reader Series: Foundation Concepts, 2010, 2.
www.postcarbon.org/Reader/PCReader-Heinberg-Limits.pdf
.

“Government and corporate officials”:
Michael Klare,
The Race for What's Left: The Global Scramble for the World's Last Resources.
New York: Macmillan, 2012, 7.
michaelklare.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/Excerpt.pdf
.

“The world is in transition”:
Lester Brown,
Full Planet, Empty Plates: The New Geopolitics of Food Scarcity.
New York: Norton, 2012, 160.
www.earth-policy.org/books/fpep/fpepch1
.

“It is a matter of”:
Hans W. Singer, “The Distribution of Gains Between Investing and Borrowing Countries.”
American Economic Review
40 (1950): 477.

“the global economy witnesses”:
David Jacks, “From Boom to Bust: A Typology of Real Commodity Prices in the Long Run,” National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper 18874, March 2013, 2.
www.nber.org/papers/w18874
.

increases in commodity prices:
Martin Stuermer, “150 Years of Boom and Bust: What Drives Mineral Commodity Prices?,” Munich RePEc Archive Paper 51859, December 4, 2013, 9.
mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/51859/1/MPRA_paper_51859.pdf
.

The super-cycles are:
Martin Stuermer, “150 Years of Boom and Bust: What Drives Mineral Commodity Prices?” Munich RePEc Archive Paper 51859, December 4, 2013.
mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/51859/1/MPRA_paper_51859.pdf
.

“Since 1871, the
Economist”:
Blake Clayton, “Bad News for Pessimists Everywhere,”
Energy, Security, and Climate,
Council on Foreign Relations, March 22, 2013.

many researchers believe:
David Jacks, “From Boom to Bust: A Typology of Real Commodity Prices in the Long Run,” National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper 18874, March 2013, 4.
www.nber.org/papers/w18874
; and Maria Kolesnikova and Isis Almeida, “Goldman Sees New Commodity Cycle as Shale Oil Spurs U.S. Growth.” Bloomberg News, January 13, 2014.
www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-13/goldman-sees-new-commodity-cycle-as-shale-oil-spurs-u-s-growth.html
.

all known oil reserves:
Donella H. Meadows, Dennis Meadows, J
ø
rgen Randers, and William W. Behrens III,
The Limits to Growth.
New York: New American Library, 1972, 66.

2013 now ranks:
Tim McMahon, “Historical Crude Oil Prices: Oil Prices 1946–Present,”
InflationData.com
, March 6, 2014.
inflationdata.com/Inflation/Inflation_rate/Historical_Oil_Prices_Table.asp
.

When the bet was settled:
John Tierney, “Economic Optimism? Yes, I'll Take That Bet.”
New York Times,
December 27, 2010.
www.nytimes.com/2010/12/28/science/28tierney.html?_r=0
.

world had reached the peak:
Werner Zittel and Jörg Schindler, “Crude Oil: The Supply Outlook.” Energy Watch Group, October 2007, 117.
www.lightrailuk.com/pdf/ewg_oilreport_oct_2007.pdf
.

an analysis released by:
Steve Geisel, “New ‘Super-Spike' Might Mean $200 a Barrel Oil.” MarketWatch,
Wall Street Journal,
March 7, 2008.
www.marketwatch.com/story/goldman-sachs-raises-possibility-of-200-a-barrel-oil
.

In 2014, global oil production:
US Energy Information Administration, “Short-Term Energy Outlook,” May 2014.
www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/report/global_oil.cfm
.

that to meet demand in 2035:
Richard Newell and Stuart Iler, “The Global Energy Outlook.” NBER Working Paper 18967, April 2013.

total world petroleum reserves:
International Energy Agency,
Resources to Reserves 2013
.
www.iea.org/Textbase/npsum/resources2013SUM.pdf
.

“Oil is not in short supply”:
Leonardo Maugeri, “Oil: The Next Revolution,” Discussion Paper 2012-10, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, June 2012.

“Conventional recoverable resources”:
IEA,
World Energy Outlook 2011: Are We Entering a Golden Age of Gas?,
7.
www.worldenergyoutlook.org/media/weowebsite/2011/WEO2011_GoldenAgeofGasReport.pdf
.

2.6 million oil and gas wells:
Wilderness Society, “Oil and Gas Drilling: Some Key Facts,” April 2011.
beyondoil.files.wordpress.com/2011/04/drilling-in-america-february-2011.pdf
.

(OPEC) wells total:
OPEC, Annual Statistical Bulletin 2012, 27.
www.opec.org/opec_web/static_files_Project/media/downloads/publications/ASB2010_2011.pdf
.

27 and 30 billion barrels of reserves:
Richard Nehring,
Linking U.S. Oil and Gas Reserve Estimates
. RAND Corporation, September 1984, 3.
www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/notes/2009/N2049.pdf
.

US proven oil reserves at 29 billion barrels:
US Energy Information Administration, “U.S. Field Production of Crude Oil,” 2014.
www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MCRFPUS1&f=A
.

45–46
“an implied cost”:
ExxonMobil,
The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040,
2014,
32.usaans1.usaa.com/en/energy/energy-outlook
.

carbon dioxide prices:
Rachel Wilson et al., “2012 Carbon Dioxide Price Forecast,” Synapse Energy Economics, October 4, 2012.
www.synapse-energy.com/sites/default/files/SynapseReport.2012-10.0.2012-CO2-Forecast.A0035.pdf
.

Reuters polled twenty:
Claire Milhench and Alexander Winning, “Oil by 2020 to Fall to $80 in Real Terms—Reuters Poll.” Reuters, October 30, 2013.
www.reuters.com/article/2013/10/30/brent-poll-idUSL5N0IJ3ED20131030
.

$128 per barrel:
IEA, World Energy Outlook Factsheet, “How Will Global Energy Markets Evolve to 2035?”
www.iea.org/media/files/WEO2013_factsheets.pdf
.

real oil prices:
Bilge Erten and Jos
é
Antonio Ocampo, “Super-Cycles of Commodity Prices Since the Mid-Nineteenth Century,” Initiative for Policy Dialogue Working Paper Series, Columbia University, January 2012, 28.

“The age of ‘cheap oil'”:
Leonardo Maugeri, “Oil: The Next Revolution,” Discussion Paper 2012-10, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, June 2012, 6.

government-owned oil companies:
Silvana Tordo, Brandon Tracy, and Noora Arfaa, World Bank Working Paper 218, National Oil Companies and Value Creation, Vol. 1, 2011.
siteresources.worldbank.org/INTOGMC/Resources/9780821388310.pdf
.

In the wake of the Arab Spring:
Michael L. Ross, “Will Oil Drown the Arab Spring?”
Foreign Affairs,
September/August 2011.
www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/68200/michael-l-ross/will-oil-drown-the-arab-spring
.

“Scarcity leads to shortage”:
David Zetland, “Do Smaller Water Footprints Lead to Bigger Profits?”
The Guardian,
November 22, 2010.
www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/water-footprints-bigger-profits
.

“Scarcity and shortage are the same”:
David Zetland,
Living with Water Scarcity
. Aguanomics Press, 2014, 100.
livingwithwaterscarcity.com/
.

“Underpricing”:
Summary Human Development Report 2006,
Beyond Scarcity: Power, Poverty and the Global Water Crisis.
New York: UNDP, 2006, 52.
hdr.undp.org/sites/default/files/hdr_2006_summary_en.pdf
.

Even now, 3.6 billion:
Drinking Water.
World Health Organization, 2012.
www.who.int/water_sanitation_health/monitoring/water.pdf
.

foolish policies:
John Parnell, “World on Course to Run out of Water, Warns Ban Ki-Moon.”
The Guardian,
May 23, 2013.
www.theguardian.com/environment/2013/may/22/world-run-out-water-ban-ki-moon1
.

water privatization:
Fredrik Segerfeldt,
Water for Sale: How Business and the Market Can Resolve the World's Water Crisis
. Washington, DC: Cato Books, 2006, 144; see a short version at
www.ein.eu/files/Segerfeldt_Amigo.pdf
.

these initial projects:
Jennifer Franco and Sylvia Kay, “The Global Water Grab: A Primer.” Transnational Institute, March 13, 2012.
www.tni.org/primer/global-water-grab-primer#countries
.

“Barriers to adaptation”:
IPCC,
Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability,
April 2014, Chapter 3, 76.
ipcc-wg2.gov/AR5/images/uploads/WGIIAR5-Chap3_FGDall.pdf
.

recent alarms:
Tom Philpott, “Are We Heading Toward ‘Peak Fertilizer'?”
Mother Jones,
November 28, 2012.
www.motherjones.com/tom-philpott/2012/11/are-we-heading-toward-peak-fertilizer
.

applying nitrogen, phosphorus:
National Agricultural Center and Hall of Fame, Justus von Liebig.
www.aghalloffame.com/hall/liebig.aspx
.

“humanity faces a Malthusian trap”:
James Elser and Stuart White, “Peak Phosphorus.”
Foreign Policy,
April 20, 2010.
www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/04/20/peak_phosphorus
.

“impending shortage of two fertilizers”:
Jeremy Grantham, “Be Persuasive. Be Brave. Be Arrested (If Necessary).”
Nature
491.7424 (November 14, 2012).
www.nature.com/news/be-persuasive-be-brave-be-arrested-if-necessary-1.11796
.

development of such nutrient-efficient crops:
Xiurong Wang et al., “Overexpressing AtPAP15 Enhances Phosphorus Efficiency in Soybean.”
Plant Physiology
151.1 (September 2009): 233–240.
www.plantphysiol.org/content/151/1/233.abstract
.