The End of Doom (42 page)

“insufficient economically recoverable lithium”:
William Tahil, “The Trouble with Lithium: The Implications of Future PHEV Production for Lithium Demand.” Meridian International Research, January 2007.
www.inference.phy.cam.ac.uk/sustainable/refs/nuclear/TroubleLithium.pdf
.

“Even with a rapid”:
Paul Gruber et al., “Global Lithium Availability: A Constraint for Electric Vehicles?”
Journal of Industrial Ecology
15.5 (October 2011): 760–775.
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1530-9290.2011.00359.x/abstract
.

on the order of 1 billion:
Cyrus Wadia, Paul Albertus, and Venkat Srinivasan, “Resource Constraints on the Battery Energy Storage Potential for Grid and Transportation Applications.”
Journal of Power Sources
196.3 (February 2011), 1598.
cyruswadia.com/prof/Publications_files/Wadia%20et.al.%20Resource%20Constraints%20on%20Battery%20Storage.pdf
.

hike in the price of some raw material:
Chris Rhodes, “Peak Minerals: Shortage of Rare Earths Metals Threatens Renewable Energy,”
OilPrice.com
, July 30, 2012.
oilprice.com/Alternative-Energy/Renewable-Energy/Peak-Minerals-Shortage-of-Rare-Earth-Metals-Threatens-Renewable-Energy.html
; Harald Ulrik Sverdrup, Deniz Koca, and Kristin Vala Ragnarsdottir, “Metals, Minerals, Energy, Wealth, Food and Population: Urgent Policy Considerations for a Sustainable Society.”
Journal of Environmental Science and Engineering B 1
(January 20, 2013): 499–533.
www.davidpublishing.com/davidpublishing/Upfile/10/21/2013/2013102168383361.pdf
.; and Ugo Bardi and Marco Pagani, “Peak Minerals.”
The Oil Drum,
October 15, 2007.
www.theoildrum.com/node/3086
.

“Prices for most rare”:
US Department of Defense, Annual Industrial Capabilities Report to Congress, October 2013, 25.
www.acq.osd.mil/mibp/docs/annual_ind_cap_rpt_to_congress-2013.pdf
.

Tesla Motors installs:
European Commission,
Futurium,
“Emerging Alternatives to Rare Earth Elements,” 2013.
ec.europa.eu/digital-agenda/futurium/en/content/emerging-alternatives-rare-earth-elements
.

“The influence of innovation”:
Harry Bloch and David Sapsford, “Innovation, Real Primary Commodity Prices, and the Business Cycles,” paper presented at the International Schumpeter Society Conference 2010 on Innovation, Organisation, Sustainability and Crises, Aalborg, June 2010, 10.

presence of an EKC-type relationship:
Bishwa Koirala et al., “Further Investigation of Environmental Kuznets Curve Studies Using Meta-Analysis.”
International Journal of Ecological Economics and Statistics
22.S11 (2011).
www.ceserp.com/cp-jour/index.php?journal=ijees&page=article&op=view&path[]=1014
.

globally, pollution:
edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu/news_docs/July%2019_v2.pdf
, Version v4.1of the Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR), July 2010.

sulfur dioxide emissions:
K. Zilmont, S. J. Smith, and J. Cofala, “The Last Decade of Global Anthropogenic Sulfur Dioxide 2000–2011.”
Environmental Research Letters
8.1 (January 2013).
iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/8/1/014003/article
.

pollution turning point:
Anil Markandya et al., “Empirical Analysis of National Income and SO
2
Emissions in Selected European Countries.”
Environmental and Resource Economics
35 (2006): 221–257.
www.environmental-expert.com/Files/6063/articles/9212/1.pdf
.

“If consumers dematerialize”:
Jesse H. Ausubel and Paul Waggoner, “Dematerialization: Variety, Caution, and Persistence,”
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
105.35 (September 2, 2008): 12774–12779.
www.pnas.org/content/105/35/12774.full
.

modern technology enables:
Vaclav Smil,
Making the Modern World: Materials and Dematerialization.
New York: Wiley, 2013.

the amount of energy:
Ramez Naam,
The Infinite Resource: The Power of Ideas on a Finite Planet.
Lebanon, NH: University Press of New England, 2013.

significant gains in energy productivity:
Alliance Commission on National Energy Efficiency Policy, “History of Energy Efficiency.” Alliance to Save Energy, January 2013, 4.
www.ase.org/sites/ase.org/files/resources/Media%20browser/ee_commission_history_report_2-1-13.pdf
.

a realistic simulation:
Daniel J. Fagnant and Kara M. Kockelman, “The Travel and Environmental Implications of Shared Autonomous Vehicles, Using Agent-Based Model Scenarios.”
Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies
40 (March 2014): 1–13.
www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0968090X13002581
.

shared autonomous vehicles:
Lawrence Burns, William Jordan, and Bonnie Scarborough, “Transforming Personal Mobility.” The Earth Institute, Columbia University, New York, 2013.

resource consumption trends:
Iddo Wernick and Jesse Ausubel, “Making Nature Useless? Global Resource Trends, Innovation, and Implications for Conservation.” Resources for the Future, November 5, 2014.
www.rff.org/Events/Pages/Making-Nature-Useless-Global-Resource-Trends-Innovation-and-Implications-for-Conservation.aspx
.

peak farmland:
J. H. Ausubel, I. K. Wernick, and P. E. Waggoner, “Peak Farmland and the Prospect for Land Sparing.”
Population and Development Review
38 (2013): 221–242.
phe.rockefeller.edu/docs/PDR.SUPP%20Final%20Paper.pdf
.

release of vast areas of land:
Jesse H. Ausubel, “Peak Farmland,” lecture on December 18, 2012. Symposium in Honor of the 80th Birthday of Paul Demeny and his retirement as editor of
Population and Development Review.
phe.rockefeller.edu/docs/Peak%20Farmland%2018%20Dec%20lecture%20Ausubel%281%29.pdf
.

crop plants bioengineered:
Kenrick Vezina, “Nitrogen-Efficient Crops: The Holy Grail of Agricultural Biotech?” Genetic Literacy Project, March 18, 2013.
www.geneticliteracyproject.org/2013/03/18/nitrogen-efficient-crops-the-holy-grail-of-agricultural-biotech/#.UwYouIUxbLc
.

cultured meat:
Avy Roy, “Why Meat Grown in Labs Is the Next Logical Step for Food Production.”
Next Nature,
June 28, 2013.
www.nextnature.net/2013/08/meat-grown-in-labs-is-the-next-logical-step-for-food-production/
.

“building a progressive food system”:
New Harvest,
www.new-harvest.org/
.

“is likely to play a significant role”:
Banning Garrett, “3D Printing: New Economic Paradigms and Strategic Shifts.”
Global Policy
4.1 (February 2014): 70–75.
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1758-5899.12119/full
.

“Additive manufacturing”:
Advanced Manufacturing Office, “Additive Manufacturing: Pursuing the Promise.” US Department of Energy, August 2012.

“Sustainable development”:
Gro Harlem Brundtland,
Our Common Future: Report of the World Commission on Environment and Development,
1987.
www.un-documents.net/our-common-future.pdf
.

economic growth proceeded:
Angus Maddison, The Maddison Project, Original Maddison Home Page, January 2013.
www.ggdc.net/maddison/maddison-project/home.htm
.

ultimately unsustainable societies:
Douglass C. North, John Joseph Wallis, and Barry R. Weingast,
Violence and Social Orders: A Conceptual Framework for Interpreting Recorded Human History.
New York: Cambridge University Press, 2009.

concur with the analysis:
Daron Acemo
ğ
lu and James Robinson
, Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity, and Poverty
. New York: Crown Business, 2012.

“Many lines of evidence”:
Harvey Weiss and Raymond S. Bradley, “What Drives Societal Collapse?”
The Heat Is Online,
January 26, 2001.
www.heatisonline.org/contentserver/objecthandlers/index.cfm?id=3629&method=full
.

problem-solving institutions:
Joseph Tainter,
The Collapse of Complex Societies
. New York: Cambridge University Press, 1988.

self-organizing critical systems:
Gregory G. Brunk, “Why Do Societies Collapse?: A Theory Based on Self-Organized Criticality.”
Journal of Theoretical Politics
14.2 (April 2002): 195–230.
jtp.sagepub.com/content/14/2/195.abstract
.

the start of World War I:
Thomas Kron and Thomas Grund, “Society as a Self-Organized Critical System
,” Cybernetics and Human Knowing
16.1–2 (January 1, 2009): 65–82.
www.soziologie.rwth-aachen.de/global/show_document.asp?id=aaaaaaaaaackhty
.

critical point:
Mancur Olson,
The Rise and Decline of Nations: Economic Growth, Stagflation, and Social Rigidities
. New Haven: Yale University Press, 1982.

capitalist development:
Ronald Bailey
, “China Needs the Rule of Law.”
Reason,
May 16, 2012.
reason.com/archives/2012/05/16/china-needs-the-rule-of-law
.

“the current economic model”:
Sustainable Societies, Responsive Citizens
. Declaration adopted at the sixty-fourth annual Conference of the Department of Public Information for Non-Governmental Organizations, Bonn, Germany, September 3–5, 2011.
www.un.org/wcm/webdav/site/dpingorelations/shared/Final%20Declaration/BonnEng.pdf
.

“Is it realistic”:
Lucas Bretschger and Sjak Smulders, “Sustainability and Substitution of Exhaustible Natural Resources: How Resource Prices Affect Long-Term R&D-Investments,” in
Environment and Sustainable Development,
I. Sundar, ed. New Delhi: APH Publishing Company, 2006.
www.cer.ethz.ch/wif/wif/resec/research/research_seminar/substitution.hp.pdf
.

“Every generation has perceived”:
Paul Romer, “Economic Growth,”
The Concise Encyclopedia of Economics,
2nd ed.
www.econlib.org/library/Enc/EconomicGrowth.html
.

3. Never Do Anything for the First Time

“more sorry than safe”:
Jonathan H. Adler, “More Sorry Than Safe: Assessing the Precautionary Priniciple and the Proposed International Biosafety Protocol.”
Texas International Law Journal,
Spring 2000, 173–205.
scholarlycommons.law.case.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1225&context=faculty_publications
.

“When an activity”:
Science and Environmental Health Network, Wingspread Consensus Statement on the Precautionary Principle, January 26, 1998.
www.sehn.org/wing.html
.

“is not an anti-science view”:
Chris Mooney, “Unequivocal: Today's Right Is Overwhelmingly More Anti-Science Than Today's Left.”
DeSmogBlog,
September 9, 2011.
www.desmogblog.com/unequivocal-today-s-right-overwhemingly-more-anti-science-today-s-left
.

“Assume that all”:
Peter Montague, “The Precautionary Principle in the Real World,” Environmental Research Foundation, January 21, 2008.
www.rachel.org/lib/pp_def.htm
.

“The truth of the matter”:
George Annas, cited in
Ronald Bailey
, “Precautionary Tale.”
Reason,
April 1999.
reason.com/archives/1999/04/01/precautionary-tale/1
.

“If the burden of proof”:
Cass Sunstein, “The Paralyzing Principle.”
Regulation,
Winter 2002–2003, 32–37.
object.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/serials/files/regulation/2002/12/v25n4-9.pdf
.

“The problem is”:
Adam Thierer, “Technopanics, Threat Inflation, and the Danger of an Information Technology Precautionary Principle.”
Minnesota Journal of Law, Science and Technology,
January 25, 2013.

Minotaurs are notoriously:
Rahim Sameer, “The Opera Novice: The Minotaur by Harrison Birtwistle and David Harsent.”
The Telegraph,
January 22, 2013.
www.telegraph.co.uk/culture/music/opera/9818147/The-opera-novice-The-Minotaur-by-Harrison-Birtwistle-and-David-Harsent.html
.

overall green plan:
Steve Breyman, cited in
Ronald Bailey
, “Precautionary Tale.”
Reason,
April 1999.
reason.com/archives/1999/04/01/precautionary-tale/1
.

“the greatest uncertainty”:
S
ø
ren Holm and John Harris, “Precautionary Principle Stifles Discovery.”
Nature
400: 398 (July 29, 1999), cited in Gary Marchant et al., Council for Agricultural Science and Technology (CAST),
Impact of the Precautionary Principle on Feeding Current and Future Generations
. Issue Paper 52. CAST, Ames, Iowa, 2013.

“The precautionary principle”:
Cass R. Sunstein, “Throwing Precaution to the Wind: Why the ‘Safe' Choice Can Be Dangerous.”
Boston Globe,
July 13, 2008.

five different common cognitive biases:
Cass R. Sunstein, “The Laws of Fear.” University of Chicago Law and Economics, Olin Working Paper No. 128 (June 2001). Available at SSRN:
ssrn.com/abstract=274190
or
dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.274190
.

German government decided:
Michael Bastasch, “CO
2
Emissions Have Increased Since 2011 Despite Germany's $140 Billion Green Energy Plan.”
The Daily Caller,
April 9, 2014.
dailycaller.com/2014/04/09/germanys-140-billion-green-energy-plan-increased-co2-emissions/#ixzz2yaOKrXJF
.